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The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2005: How Unique Is Ethiopia?

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Abstract

We present the pace and nature of the fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa in general, and eastern and southern Africa in particular, using the latest available data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs). Nearly all of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa have experienced the onset of fertility transition. However, the pace of decline is slow in several of these countries, and stalling of fertility decline is evident in some countries where fertility decline had begun. The stall occurred in both rural and urban areas. Since 1990, Ethiopia showed a decline in fertility from 6.6 in 1990 to 5.5 in 2000, then slowed down to 5.4 in 2005. Fertility transition in eastern and southern Africa is more advanced in urban areas, but at incipient level in rural areas. Around 2005, urban areas in 3 countries (Ethiopia, Namibia, and Zimbabwe) were in the advanced stage of fertility transition. Urban areas in Ethiopia have the lowest fertility among urban areas in eastern and southern Africa. Looking at fertility levels in capital cites in eastern and southern Africa, Addis Ababa stands out as the only city with below replacement fertility after the 1990s. In the 1990s, urban areas in six of the ten countries in this analysis had a contraceptive prevalence less than 20%. By around 2005, contraceptive prevalence surpassed above 30% in most urban areas of eastern and southern Africa. Overall, age at first marriage is increasing, however marriage during teenage years is still the norm in most countries in the sub region. The largest increase between ca. 1990 and ca. 2005 was in urban Ethiopia, in the order of around 2.5 years. In the 15 years span from ca. 1990 to ca. 2005 under-five mortality declined most rapidly by 43% in Malawi (a decline of 3.6% per year), by 41% in Ethiopia (a decline of 2.7% per year) and by 38% in Zambia (a decline of 2.5% per year). In conclusion, Ethiopia is unique from other sub-Saharan Africa countries in 4 major ways: well advanced fertility transition in urban areas (with only 16% of the population), but incipient (early-transition) fertility level in rural areas; significant increase in contraceptive use; rapid infant and child mortality decline; and a substantial decline in desire to have additional child in rural areas.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey (NFFS) was conducted by the Central Statistical Authority (CSA, 1993). The NFFS primarily targeted women age 15–49. The questionnaires used in NFFS survey were similar to the standardized DHS questionnaires. Due to security and other reasons, the NFFS excluded from its coverage Eritrea, rural Tigray, Asseb, and Ogaden autonomous regions. In addition, fieldwork could not be carried out for Northern Gondar, Southern Gondar, Northern Wello, and Southern Wello due to security reasons.

  2. 2.

    Stall is defined as a failure of the national TFR to decline between two (most recent) DHS surveys after an established trend of decline in national fertility (Bongaarts, 2006).

  3. 3.

    Total fertility rates for the three years preceding the survey for each country were generated from STATcompiler (except for the 1990 NFFS, Ethiopia). http://www.measuredhs.com

  4. 4.

    The earliest DHS survey in this cohort was conducted in 1986 in Senegal.

  5. 5.

    Data from various DHS reports from sub-Saharan Africa indicate that highest levels of contraceptive prevalence with respect to modern contraception tend to be in eastern and southern Africa.

  6. 6.

    Early marriage is defined as “any marriage carried out below the age of 18 years, before the girl is physically, physiologically, and psychologically ready to shoulder the responsibilities of marriage and childbearing” (UNICEF, 2005; IPPF, 2006).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. ICF Macro, Atlanta, GA, USA

    Tesfayi Gebreselassie

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  1. Tesfayi Gebreselassie
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Correspondence to Tesfayi Gebreselassie .

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  1. Population Reference Bureau, Connecticut Ave. NW., 1875, Washington, 20009, District of Columbia, USA

    Charles Teller

Appendix

Appendix

Table 2.6 Sub-Saharan Africa countries with at least three DHSs in the analysis
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Table 2.7 Estimated total fertility rates, national and by rural and urban residence, and trend: countries with multiple surveys
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Gebreselassie, T. (2011). The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2005: How Unique Is Ethiopia?. In: Teller, C. (eds) The Demographic Transition and Development in Africa. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8918-2_2

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