Conclusions and Policy Implications

Abstract

The book documents numerous ways in which large and rapidly growing Ethiopia is demographically unique from the rest of sub-Saharan Africa: the second most populated country in Africa, the largest rural-urban gap in fertility in Africa, the only city in East and Southern Africa with below replacement fertility, and by far the lowest maternal health service coverage. It also acknowledges Ethiopia’s unexpected progress towards meeting most of the human development MDGs, in child health and undernutrition, HIV/AIDS, education and water, and thus one of the few SSA countries on track (in 2010) in most goals. Within the African context, Ethiopia is in the incipient stages of the fertility transition, with the overwhelming majority in rural areas lagging far behind urban areas. The book presents a revised framework for the study of the multiple causes of the demographic transition, including demographic responses and adaptation to frequent shocks and hazards. Using various case studies, it documents the multiple demographic structures and responses to these risks and on-going vulnerabilities, with migration and labor mobility, as well as changing youth aspirations and delayed marriage, as important adaptations. We predict an acceleration of the incipient rural fertility decline, and the potential of reaping a demographic dividend. However, the increasing proportion of the population in the working age category can only be transformed into an economic bonus if there are adequate preparations for skilled youth jobs, agricultural intensification, technological adaptation, educational efficiency, healthier lifestyles, higher youth aspirations, better governance, improved infrastructure, and higher quality institutions. Finally we conclude that there has been unsatisfactory implementation of the 1993 National Population Policy, and that the need to redress the imbalance between population growth and resources has not progressed well, with growing population pressure and environmental degradation. The government’s draft (Sept. 2010) Growth and Transformation Policy sets forth ambitious population and human development targets for the MDG deadline of 2015. Thus, given in this context, we list the implications for strengthening policy implementation, research and data analysis capacity, and harmonization of demographic data within useful M&E systems.