Population, Family Planning and Long-Term Development Goals: “Predicting an Unpredictable Future”

Abstract

There is a growing need for evidence-based and concrete information about the interrelationship between population and development by policymakers in many countries. This paper provides information on the contribution of population to the realization of Ethiopia’s vision of “extricating itself from poverty and becoming a middle-income economy”. It uses a computer model “Spectrum” to project the population to the year 2035 under two fertility decline scenarios and links it with the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The assumptions for the two projections are: (1) High fertility decline scenario at TFR 2.1 in contrast to a low fertility decline scenario at 3.4 TFR by 2035, and (2) A faster development scenario with GDP growth of 10.1% annually, in contrast with a lower development scenario with 7.3% annual GDP growth. Under the fast fertility decline assumption, the population will reach at 128 million, and in the slow decline scenario it will be 148 million. Under the fast fertility decline and high growth scenario, GDP per capita will reach around $1,400, allowing the country to join the middle income category in 2035. We conclude that the country might be able to achieve its middle-income development vision under the fast fertility decline scenario if GDP grows by more than 10% and accompanied by a massive family planning program and giving attention to quality social services, such as education, health care and women’s empowerment.