Inferring Age and Spatial Patterns

  • Andrei Rogers
  • James Raymer
  • Jani Little
Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 26)


In this chapter, we focus on methods for estimating migration flows in the absence of migration data. To obtain the patterns of interest, we use auxiliary information. Our examples illustrate both current and historical applications of indirect estimation. In Section 6.2, a model for estimating the age composition of out-migration in the United States from aggregate totals of out-migration and population age compositions is presented. This work draws from a recent paper by Little and Rogers (2007). The possibility of using 0–4 year old birthplace-specific population stocks to estimate interregional migration flows is demonstrated in Section 6.3, following work set out in Rogers and Jordan (2004) and Raymer and Rogers (2007). We then apply the methodology to estimate the historical (and completely missing) migration flows for the 1905–1910 and 1915–1920 periods. Finally, in Section 6.4, we focus on the potential for merging migration data obtained from multiple sources. Here, the aim is to follow Frans Willekens’s recommendation that “in order to compile coherent and internally consistent information on migration, data from several sources ought to be combined” (Willekens, 1994, p. 31). Smith, Raymer, and Giulietti (2010), for example, follow this advice by combining census, registration, and survey migration data in England and Wales.


Model Schedule American Community Survey Migration Data Discriminant Function Analysis Logistic Regression Method 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of Colorado, Boulder Inst. Behavioral Science Population ProgramBoulderUSA
  2. 2.School of Social SciencesUniversity of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK
  3. 3.University of Colorado Institute of Behavioral ScienceBoulderUK

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