Abstract
In this chapter presented and discussed the basic concepts and methodology for applying the ProFamy approach in combination with ratio methods (including the constant-share and shift-share ratio methods) to project household and living arrangement projections at the small area level. To assess the accuracy of the combined ratio method and ProFamy approach and present illustrative applications, we calculated projections from 1990 to 2000 and compared projected estimates with census-observed counts in 2000 for sets of randomly selected 25 small counties and 25 small cities which were more or less evenly distributed across the United States. The comparisons show that, in general, most forecast errors are reasonably small – mostly less than or slightly more than 5 %. These results evidently illustrated the utility of the ProFamy approach in combination with ratio methods to project households and living arrangements at the small area level.
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Notes
- 1.
Small areas refer to the smaller counties, cities and towns, as well as places, possibly even tracts or block groups, which have a small population size.
- 2.
The parental region may be a state in the United States, a province in other countries, or another kind of sub-national administrative district (including a large county, city, municipality, etc.).
- 3.
If an area (county, city, or town) has a reasonably large population size and has the needed data to estimate the demographic parameters, one could apply the ProFamy extended cohort-component method directly, and no need to apply it indirectly through combination with the ratio method.
- 4.
- 5.
For the major demographic indicators, the annual ACS is representative at the state level, and 2-, 3-, 4-, or 5-year moving averages of the ACS data are representative for the sub-state areas, depending on their population size.
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Zeng, Y., Land, K.C., Gu, D., Wang, Z. (2014). Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Small Area Level. In: Household and Living Arrangement Projections. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 36. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9_6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9_6
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