Abstract
In this chapter presents a substantial extension of the ProFamy model by introducing and estimating changes in older adults’ disability status as well as related home-based care costs, with an illustrative application to China. Our extended model combines the projection of family structure, living arrangements, and disability statuses for elders aged 65+ with the projection of family structure and living arrangements for the younger population aged 0–64. The extended model projects not only disability statuses and home-based care needs and costs for older adults, but also age-sex-specific numbers and family household structures of the working-age population, i.e., the caregivers for the disabled elderly.
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Notes
- 1.
The health status of elderly in the present study is measured by ADL, but it may also be measured by other indicators.
- 2.
We may of course distinguish seven marital/union statuses for applications in the other countries (e.g., the U.S.), where cohabitation is rather common and the needed data are available.
- 3.
Because number of co-residing children is equal to or less than parity, the number of composite statuses of parity and co-residing children is \( {\displaystyle \sum_{p=0}^5\left(p+1\right)} \) rather than (6 × 6).
- 4.
The micro-data of the sixth census of China conducted in 2010 are still not available for scholars and the public to use so far.
- 5.
Following the widely adopted international standards in the elderly population heath surveys, the reference period of one week for care expenditures and time is intended to reduce recall errors of relatively long periods of time.
- 6.
According to the widely adopted international practice, the appropriate period for collecting information on care costs before death is one month on average.
- 7.
The Chinese life expectancy at birth was 71.4 in 2000 and 73 years in 2005, based on the census and mini-census data. Assuming the same future annual rate of increase as that in 2000–2005, the life expectancy at birth in China would be 87.4 years in 2050. Therefore, the low mortality scenario assumption of a life expectancy at birth of 84.8 in 2050 and 88 years old in 2080 in China may not be too optimistic.
- 8.
We use a quadratic curve to smooth the fluctuation of the annual growth rates during 1990–2008 and linear curve fitting during 2009–2030; we assume the care costs and GDP grow at the same annual rate after 2030.
- 9.
Poorer facilities may force rural older persons to perform daily activities by themselves; this frequent exercise may enable them to better maintain or recover their capacities for daily living than their urban counterparts. Furthermore, the harder life and higher mortality at younger ages in rural areas may have resulted in a population of older persons who are more selected than their counterparts in cities and towns are.
- 10.
Perhaps those who live alone may more likely have active ADL capacity; such selection may result in elders having disadvantages in ADL status being more likely to coreside with children compared to those living alone.
- 11.
In our study, the gap between the high (b) and low scenarios will increasingly enlarge as the projection period is prolonged, which is similar to results in other demographers’ high, medium, and low projections Lee and Tuljapurkar (2001: 22).
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Zeng, Y., Land, K.C., Gu, D., Wang, Z. (2014). Extension of ProFamy Model to Project Elderly Disability Status and Home-Based Care Costs, with an Illustrative Application. In: Household and Living Arrangement Projections. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 36. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9_5
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