Forecasting Migration: Selected Models and Methods

  • Jakub Bijak
Part of the The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis book series (PSDE, volume 24)


In the current chapter, a survey of various models and methods used in migration predictions to date is offered. The rationale is that socio-economic predictions can be based not only on general, well-grounded laws and theories, but also on descriptive models designed to suit specific research questions. The presented overview follows a distinction between deterministic and probabilistic approaches, presented respectively in Sections 4.1 and 4.2, depending on the way the uncertainty issue is treated. The presented models and methods are finally compared and evaluated from the point of view of their usefulness for the purpose of the current and possible future studies.


Markov Chain Forecast Error International Migration Interregional Migration Population Flow 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of Social Sciences, Centre for Population Change and S3RI, University of SouthamptonSouthamptonUK

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