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Part of the book series: International Handbooks of Population ((IHOP,volume 4))

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Abstract

In 2009 American tax payers spent US$200 billion to defeat the Taliban and Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. According to the Center for Arms Control and Non Proliferation (2010) the US accounts for 47 % of the world’s military spending totaling $965 billion per year. Given this type of investment, we wonder if the US can succeed because while the population continues to grow, few infrastructures are available to sustain the population. This paper addresses demographic characteristics and patterns that pose significant challenges to security and development in Afghanistan. We suggest that the development projects introduced by the U.S. as part of the overall strategy for defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan are more likely to succeed if investments in supporting women are not increased, to include health care, reproductive health and both academic and vocational training. Our suggestion is based on Afghanistan’s population growth, which we argue fosters a demographic pattern that feeds the Taliban insurgency and, as such, serves to diminish the possibility of country and regional stability.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    In a December 2009 briefing Major General Mike Flynn, Senior Intelligence Officer for ISAF, said “The solution, therefore, is about securing the Afghan population, enabling good governance by the GIRoA, and supporting development projects that can provide sustainable jobs and a healthy economy.” “State of the Insurgency Trends, Intentions and Objectives’ Michael Flynn, Director of Intelligence, International Security Assistance Force, Afghanistan, U.S. Forces, Afghanistan.

    AS OF: 22 DEC, 2009.

  2. 2.

    CIA data shows an estimate of 28 million, 2009.

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  26. 26.

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  27. 27.

    The Central Statistical Office and UNFPA have not reported the exact reason for the decline. However, the fertility decline could be due to the sample size, to better data gathering and reporting at the provincial level, or because of the wars people are having fewer children or a combination of all. Statistical test should be conducted to get a better picture.

  28. 28.

    The Household Level Census precludes direct calculations of the most common demographic variables such as birth and death rates. However, statistical estimates were produced and adjusted by UNFPA for age and sex misreporting.

  29. 29.

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  31. 31.

    Definition of Dependency Ratio: The dependency ratio measures the % of dependent people (not of working age)/ number of people of working age (economically active). OR Number of Children (0–15) + Number of Pensioners (>65)

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  42. 42.

    USAID Afghanistan Obligations: FY 2009 shows that $93 million USD were used for Health and a similar amount for Education. These amounts reflect 4 % each of the total budget for Afghanistan Obligation and a substantial decline from 2008 (7 and 8 %) respectively.

  43. 43.

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  50. 50.

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  51. 51.

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  53. 53.

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  55. 55.

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  64. 64.

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  65. 65.

    Calls for change, implementation and financial assistance by internal advocates such as the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission headed by Sima Samar; The Ministry of Women’s Affairs; parliamentary members Shukria Barakzai and Malalai Joya; cabinet member Dr. Sohaila Seddiqi and Habiba Sorabi, Afghanistan’s first-ever female governor Habiba Surabi. Also see 2008 MOA study “Women in Afghanistan”.

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  67. 67.

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  68. 68.

    Studies in countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia have systematically shown a statistically significant relationship between educational attainment, a decline in the number of births and women’s empowerment.

  69. 69.

    Article| Sippi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam |“The arrested Development of Afghan Women” | in The Future of Afghanistan | J. Alexander Thier editor, United States Institute for Peace, Washington, DC | 2009 |.

  70. 70.

    For a more detailed list see for example Sippi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam “The arrested Development of Afghan Women” in The Future of Afghanistan, J Alexander Thier editor, United States Institute for Peace, 2009.

  71. 71.

    Article| The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs | An Agenda for State Building in the Twenty-first Century |1 Winter 2006 | pp101–123 | Vol. 30:1 |.

  72. 72.

    For a more detailed list see for example Sippi Azarbaijani-Moghaddam “The arrested Development of Afghan Women” in The Future of Afghanistan, J Alexander Thier editor, United States Institute for Peace, 2009.

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El-Badry, S., Swanson, D.A. (2015). An Exploratory Examination of Population and Stability in Afghanistan. In: Sáenz, R., Embrick, D., Rodríguez, N. (eds) The International Handbook of the Demography of Race and Ethnicity. International Handbooks of Population, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8891-8_15

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