Abstract
Promoting and increasing rates of energy efficiency is a promising method of reducing CO2 emissions and avoiding the potentially devastating effects of climate change. The question is: How do we induce a cultural or a behavioural change whereby people nationally and globally adopt more energy-efficient lifestyles?
We propose a new family of mathematical models, based on a statistical mechanics extension of discrete choice theory, that offer a set of formal tools to systematically analyse and quantify this problem. An application example is to predict the percentage of people choosing to buy new energy-efficient light bulbs instead of the old incandescent versions; in particular, through statistical evaluation of survey responses, the models can identify the key driving factors in the decision-making process, for example, the extent to which people imitate each other. These tools and models that allow us to account for social interactions could help us identify tipping points that may be used to trigger structural changes in our society. The results may provide tangible and deliverable evidence-based policy options to decision makers.
We believe that these models offer an opportunity for the research community, in both the social and the physical sciences, and decision makers, both in the private and the public sectors, to work together towards preventing the potentially devastating social, economic and environmental effects of climate change.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Bibliography
Akerlof, G. (1997). Social distance and economic decisions. Econometrica 65, 1005–1027.
Ariely, D. (2008). Predictably irrational – the hidden forces that shape our decisions. London: Harper Collins.
Bandura A. (1986). Social foundations of thought and action: A social cognitive theory. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Ben-Akiva M. and Lerman, S. R. (1985). Discrete choice analysis. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press.
Bond, R. and Smith, P. B. (1996). Culture and conformity: A meta-analysis of studies using Asch’s (1952b,1956) line judgment task. Psychol. Bull. 119, 111–137.
Brock, W. and Durlauf, S. (2001). Discrete choice with social interactions. Rev. Econ. Stud. 68, 235–260.
Brock, W. and Durlauf, S. (2007). Identification of binary choice models with social interactions. J. Economet. 140, 52–75.
Contucci, P., Gallo, I., and Ghirlanda, S. (2007). Equilibria of culture contact derived from ingroup and outgroup attitudes, arXiv: 0712.1119.
Contucci, P. and Ghirlanda, S. (2007). Modeling society with statistical mechanics: An application to cultural contact and immigration. Qual. Quan. 41, 569–578.
Contucci, P. and Giardina, C. (2008). Mathematics and social sciences: A statistical mechanics approach to immigration. ERCIM News 73, 34–35.
Creyts, J., Derkach, A., Nyquist, S., Ostrowski, K., and Stephenson, J. (2007). Reducing U.S. greenhouse emissions: how much and at what cost? McKinsey & Company Report, http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp
DEFRA (2008). Household energy supplier obligations – The carbon emissions reduction target. Published on the DEFRA website: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/uk/household/supplier/index.htm
Fox, J., Daly, A. J, and Gunn, H. (2003). Review of RAND Europe’s transport demand model systems. Published on RAND’s website: http://rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1694
Gerard, K., Shanahan, M., and Louviere, J. (2003). Using stated preference discrete choice modelling to inform health care decision-making: A pilot study of breast screening participation. Appl. Econ. 359, 1073–1085.
Granovetter, M. (1978). Threshold models of collective behavior. Am. J. Sociol. 83, 1420–1443.
IPCC (2007). Fourth assessment report: climate change 2007. Published on the IPCC’s website: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm
Knott, D., Muers, S., and Aldridge, S., (2007). Achieving cultural change: A policy framework. The strategy unit, Cabinet Office, UK Government.
Luce, R. and Suppes, P. (1965). Preferences, utility and subjective probability. In R. Luce,, R. Bush, Galenter E. (Eds.) Handbook of mathematical psychology (Vol. 3) New York: Wiley.
McFadden, D. (2001). Economic choices. Am. Econ. Rev. 91, 351–378.
Ortuzar, J. and Wilumsen, L. (2001). Modell. Trans. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
Paag, H., Daly, A.J., and Rohr, C. (2001). Predicting use of the Copenhagen harbour tunnel. In H. David (Ed.), Travel behaviour research: the leading edge. Pergamon.
Persky, J. (1995). Retrospectives: The ethology of Homo Economicus. J. Econ. Perspect. 92, 221–23.
Ryan, M. and Gerard, K. (2003). Using discrete choice experiments to value health care programmes: Current practice and future research reflections. Appl. Health Econom. Health Pol., 21, 55–64.
Ryan, M., Netten, A., Skatun D., and Smith, P. (2006). Using discrete choice experiments to estimate a preference-based measure of outcome – An application to social care for older people. J. Health Economics, 255, 927–944.
Scheinkman, J. A. (2008). Social interactions. The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics (2nd edn.) Palgrave Macmillan.
Schelling, T. (1978). Micromotives and macrobehavior. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.
Stern, N. (2007). The economics of climate change – The stern review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Takanori, I. and Koruda, T. (2006). Discrete choice analysis of demand for broadband in Japan. J. Regul. Econ. 291, 5–22.
Train, K. (2003). Discrete choice methods with simulation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Verhaar, H. (2007). Reducing CO2 emissions by 555 Mton through Energy Efficiency Lighting. Presented at the UNFCCC Conference in Bali, December 8.
Weiss, P. (1907). L’hypothèse du champ moléculaire et la propriété ferromagnétique. J. de Phys. 4 série VI, 661–690.
Acknowledegments
F.G. and A.C. would like to thank Bryony Worthington and James Fox for their contributions and the useful discussions. I.G. acknowledges partial support from the CULTAPTATION project of the European Commission (FP6-2004-NEST-PATH-043434).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Gallo, F., Contucci, P., Coutts, A., Gallo, I. (2010). Tackling Climate Change Through Energy Efficiency: Mathematical Models to Offer Evidence-Based Recommendations for Public Policy. In: Capecchi, V., Buscema, M., Contucci, P., D'Amore, B. (eds) Applications of Mathematics in Models, Artificial Neural Networks and Arts. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8581-8_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8581-8_7
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-90-481-8580-1
Online ISBN: 978-90-481-8581-8
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)