Weather and Climate Predictions for the Energy Sector
Weather and climate forecasts are potentially valuable sources of information for use in risk management tools. It is important however to be aware of their limitations (several approximations go into a forecasting model) as well as of opportunities to enhance their information content (e.g. through understanding the underlying physical processes which lead to a given forecast). This chapter explores, at a rather high level, the physical basis of forecasts, the tools used for producing them and the importance of assessing their skill. An interesting case of a seasonal forecast and its impact on the energy market is also discussed.
KeywordsWeather climate information climate predictions forecast skill energy management
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