Can We Trust Long-Range Weather Forecasts?
Long-range weather forecasts are widely used in the energy industry, but too often their properties and limitations are not understood well enough. This chapter reviews the characteristics, methods and reliability of long-range weather prediction, and makes recommendations regarding its use. Despite their limited skill, long-range forecasts can still be a valuable tool for managing weather risk provided the necessary caution is exercised.
KeywordsLong-range weather prediction seasonal forecast weather risk management energy weather weather forecast quality
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