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Hydrological Forecasting

Abstract

Hydrological forecasts typically aim to translate meteorological observations and forecasts into estimates of river flows. Techniques can include rainfall-runoff (hydrologic) and hydrological and hydrodynamic flow routing models, and simpler statistical and water-balance approaches. Additional components may also be required for water quality applications, and for modeling specific features of a catchment, such as reservoirs, and lakes, and the influence of snowmelt. Particularly for short lead times, models may also need to be embedded in a forecasting system, which controls the gathering of data, the model runs and the post-processing of outputs. The availability of real-time data also provides the option to update the model states or parameters or to post-process the outputs to improve the accuracy of the forecast; a process which is often called data assimilation or real-time updating. For operational use, appropriate performance measures also need to be adopted for forecast verification. This chapter presents an introduction to these various topics, and to the general issues of forecast uncertainty, and probabilistic and ensemble flow forecasting.

Keywords

  • Rainfall-runoff
  • Hydrologic
  • Flow routing
  • Hydraulic
  • Hydrodynamic
  • Data assimilation
  • Performance measures
  • Forecast verification
  • Forecast uncertainty
  • Probabilistic forecast

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Sene, K. (2010). Hydrological Forecasting. In: Hydrometeorology. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-3403-8_4

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