Abstract
Induced by high population density, rapid but uneven economic growth, and long-time resource exploitation, China's upper Yangtze basin has witnessed remarkable changes in land uses and covers, which have resulted in severe environmental consequences, such as flooding, soil erosion, and habitat loss. This paper examines the causes of the land use and land cover changes (LUCC) along the Jinsha River, one primary section of the upper Yangtze, aiming to better understand the human impact on the dynamic LUCC process and to provide necessary policy actions for sustainable land use and environmental protection. Using a panel dataset covering 31 counties over four time periods from 1975 to 2000, the study develops a fractional logit model to empirically determine the effects of socioeconomic and institutional factors on changes for cropland, forestland, and grassland. It is shown that population expansion, food self-sufficiency, and better market access drove cropland expansion, while industrial development contributed significantly to the increase of forestland and the decrease of other land uses. Similarly, stable tenure had a positive effect on forest protection. Moreover, past land use decisions were less significantly influenced by the distorted market signals. The policy implications of these findings and future directions of research are also discussed.
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Notes
- 1.
The Chinese government initially defined the poverty line as per capita income below 200 yuan in 1985. Based on inflation and other considerations, the figure has been adjusted upwards over time, reaching 1067 yuan in 2007 (China State Statistics Bureau 2008). A national poverty county is declared if a majority, but not necessarily all, of the local population lives below the poverty line.
- 2.
Elevation will not be listed in the summary statistics of variables because it is a time-constant variable. It ranges from 295 meters (m) to 6109 m for the study region, with a mean of 3070 m.
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Xiang, Q., Yin, R., Xu, J., Deng, X. (2009). Modeling the Driving Forces of the Land Use and Land Cover Changes Along the Upper Yangtze River. In: Yin, R. (eds) An Integrated Assessment of China's Ecological Restoration Programs. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2655-2_5
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