Regional Climate and Environmental Change: Moldova Case Study
The practice of environmental management increasingly recognizes the importance of scale and cross-scale dynamics in understanding and addressing global challenges. The problem is not only how to downscale the global modeling results, but how to make them more suitable for the specific applications. The paper shows some approaches to the development and application of regional climate change projections in Moldavian research. The results of six AOGCM experiments, based on SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios for three time-slices (2010–2039; 2040–2069; 2070–2099), served as a basis for downscaling. It was shown that for any sound climate change impact assessment at least four types of information are necessary: the climate change projections for a country on the whole; the expected climate changes in any place within a country's territory; daily projections of key climatic variables, and information satisfying the demands of particular researches. Country-scale projections were calculated as averaged weighted sum of the ensemble of GCM simulations. A special algorithm was proposed to select the ‘best’ ensemble. The diurnal changes in climatic variables were calculated from their monthly values approximated by high-degree polynomials. The correlation between observed values at weather stations and a corresponding value for the country were used for spatial transformation of the latter. The methods of development of user-oriented projections depended on the system under assessment. Some approaches to vulnerability assessment through integrating climate change projections with systems' sensitivity are demonstrated on the example of natural and agricultural ecosystems.
Keywordsclimate change downscaling natural ecosystems agriculture
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