Advertisement

Global Land Project: Major Scientific Questions for Coupled Modeling of Land Systems

  • Richard Aspinall
Part of the NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security book series (NAPSC)

This chapter describes some scientific challenges for coupled modeling of land systems at the interface of human and environmental systems. These include examining the character and operation of drivers of change and processes representation of drivers in models. A variety of examples of land use change, primarily from rural areas, are used to examine drivers of land use change and identify processes. The drivers examined are (i) technology, (ii) economic and structural/policy, and (iii) societal factors. These identify processes of innovation, adoption and diffusion, in relation to technology, and decision making for all socio-economic drivers. Decision making is founded on both economic and social criteria, including individual preferences, values and behaviours that influence choice and decision-making.

Keywords

land system drivers of change Scotland 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Aspinall R (2004) Modeling land use change with generalized linear models — a multi-model analysis of change between 1860 and 2000 in Gallatin Valley, Montana. J Environ Manage 72(1–2):91–103CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Bousquet F and C Le Page (2004) Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review. Ecol Model 176(3–4):313–332CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Brown D G and J D Duh (2004) Spatial simulation for translating from land use to land cover. IJGIS 18(1):35–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brown D G, Pijanowski B C, and J D Duh (2000) Modeling the relationships between land use and land cover on private lands in the Upper Midwest, USA. J Environ Manage 59(4):247–263CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Brown D G, Page S, Riolo R, Zellner M, and W Rand (2005) Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. IJGIS 19(2):153–174CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Clark J R A, Jones A, Potter C A, and M Lobley (1997) Conceptualising the evolution of the European Union's agri-environment policy: a discourse approach. Environ Plan A 29(10):1869–1885CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Entwistle G, Bachelor S, Booth E, and K Walker (1998) Economics of starch production in the UK. Ind Crop Prod 7(2–3):175–186CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Foley J A, DeFries R, Asner G P, Barford C, Bonan G, Carpenter S R, Chapin F S, Coe M T, Daily G C, Gibbs H K, Helkowski J H, Holloway T, Howard E A, Kucharik C J, Monfreda C, Patz J A, Prentice I C, Ramankutty N, and P K Snyder (2005) Global consequences of land use. Science 309(5734):570–574CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Geist H J and E F Lambin (2002) Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. Bioscience 52(2):143–150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Geist H J and E F Lambin (2004) Dynamic causal patterns of desertification. Bioscience 54(9):817–829CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. In IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19, 64Google Scholar
  12. Gude P H, Hansen A J, Rasker R, and B Maxwell (2006) Rates and drivers of rural residential development in the Greater Yellowstone. Land Urban Plan 77(1–2):131–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Hansen A J, Knight R L, Marzluff J M, Powell S, Brown K, Gude P H, and A Jones (2005) Effects of exurban development on biodiversity: patterns, mechanisms, and research needs. Ecol App 15(6):1893–1905CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Hansson M and H Fogelfors (1998) Management of permanent set-aside on arable land in Sweden. J App Ecol 35(5):758–771Google Scholar
  15. Johnson J and B Maxwell (2001) The role of the Conservation Reserve Program in controlling rural residential development. J Rural Stud 17(3):323–332CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Johnston R J, Swallow S K. Tyrrell T J, and D M Bauer (2003) Rural amenity values and length of residency. Am J Agric Econ 85(4):1000–1015CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Keys E and W J McConnell (2005) Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics. Global Environ Change — Hum. Policy Dimen. 15(4):320–337CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lambin E F and H Geist eds (2006) Land-use and land-cover change: local processes and global impacts. Berlin: SpringerGoogle Scholar
  19. Lambin E F, Geist H J, and E Lepers (2003) Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Ann Rev Environ Res 28:205–241CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Marcouiller D W, Clendenning J G, and R Kedzior (2002) Natural amenity-led development and rural planning. J Plan Litt 16(4):515–539CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Mather A S (2001) Forests of consumption: postproductivism, postmaterialism, and the postindustrial forest. Environ Plan C-Gov Policy 19(2):249–268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. National Research Council (NRC) (2001) Grand Challenges in the Environmental Sciences. In Report from the Committee on Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences., 96. Washington DC: National Research Council.Google Scholar
  23. Pichon F J (1996) Settler agriculture and the dynamics of resource allocation in frontier environments. Hum Ecol 24(3):341–371CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Rasker R (1993) Rural-development, conservation, and public-policy in the greater yellowstone ecosystem. Soc Nat Res 6(2):109–126CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Riebsame W E, Gosnell H, and D M Theobald (1996) Land use and landscape change in the Colorado Mountains.1. Theory, scale, and pattern. Mtn Res Dev 16(4):395–405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Sotherton N W (1998) Land use changes and the decline of farmland wildlife: an appraisal of the set-aside approach. Biol Conserv 83(3):259–268CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Walsh S J, Evans T P, Welsh W F, Entwisle B, and R R Rindfuss (1999) Scale-dependent relationships between population and environment in northeastern Thailand. PERS 65(1):97–105Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Richard Aspinall
    • 1
  1. 1.The Macaulay Land Use Research Institute and GLP Nodal Office on Integration and ModelingMacaulay Institute and Associated CompaniesAberdeenUK

Personalised recommendations