Abstract
Vulnerability is a central concept in climate change related research. Yet, confusion is asserted in the terminology. This chapter presents a formal framework of vulnerability that expresses concepts using mathematics. This requires assumptions to be made explicit and therefore enhances clarity.
The starting point of the framework is the concept of vulnerability in everyday language, which is analyzed into three primitives: an entity, its uncertain future evolution and a notion of harm. These are translated into mathematical concepts, upon which vulnerability is then mathematically defined as an aggregate measuring function. The scientific concept vulnerability is formalized as a refinement of this definition.
The mathematical definitions, general and precise, explain the confusion in the terminology by an interpretation of vulnerability studies in terms of the framework. A gap is revealed between the theoretical definitions that are put forward and the measurements made, and equivocalities concerning the measurements are illustrated.
Mathematical notation appears as a sort of language, une langue bien faite, a language well adapted to its purpose, concise and precise, with rules which, unlike the rules of ordinary grammar, suffer no exception. (Polya)
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Brooks, N.: Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall Center Working Paper 38 (2003)
Füssel, H.M., Klein, R.J.T.: Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Climatic Change 75(3), 301–329 (2006)
Hinkel, J.: Transdisciplinary Knowledge Integration. Cases from Integrated Assessment and Vulnerability Assessment. Ph. D. thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands (2008)
Ionescu, C.: Vulnerability modeling and monadic dynamical systems. Ph. D. thesis, Freie Universität Berlin (2008, in press)
Ionescu, C., Klein, R.J.T., Hinkel, J., Kavi Kumar, K.S., Klein, R.: Towards a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change. Environmental Modeling and Assessment (2008). doi: 10.1007/s10666-008-9179-x
Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J., Hanson, C.E. (eds.): IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK (2007)
Janssen, M.A., Ostrom, E.: Resilience, vulnerability and adaptation: A crosscutting theme of the international human dimensions programme on global environmental change. Global Environmental Change 16(3), 237–239 (2006). Editorial
Nakićenović, N., Swart, R. (eds.): Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report. Cambridge University Press (2000)
Schneider, S.H.: Can we estimate the likelihood of climatic changes at 2100? Climatic Change 52, 414–451 (2002)
Suppes, P.: The desirability of formalization in science. The Journal of Philosophy 65(20), 651–664 (1968)
Thywissen, K.: Components of Risk, A Comparative Glossary. SOURCE — Studies Of the University: Research, Counsel, Education 2 (2006)
UNFCCC: UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE. FCCC/INFORMAL/84 GE.05-62220 (E) 200705 (1992). Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
Wolf, S., Lincke, D., Hinkel, J., Ionescu, C., Bisaro, S.: Concept clarification and computational tools — a formal framework of vulnerability. FAVAIA Working Paper 8. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany (2008). Available at http://www.pik-potsdam.de/favaia/pubs/ favaiaworkingpaper8.pdf
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2009 Springer-Verlag Italia, Milan
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Wolf, S. (2009). Vulnerability to climate change: mathematics as a language to clarify concepts. In: Emmer, M., Quarteroni, A. (eds) Mathknow. MS&A, vol 3. Springer, Milano. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-88-470-1122-9_20
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-88-470-1122-9_20
Publisher Name: Springer, Milano
Print ISBN: 978-88-470-1121-2
Online ISBN: 978-88-470-1122-9
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)