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Proceedings of Fourth International Conference on Soft Computing for Problem Solving pp 477–487Cite as

Predicting the Risk of Extinction of Species: Impact of Negative Growth Rate and Allee Effect

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Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 335))

Abstract

Predicting the risk of extinction of species is an important aspect in conservation biology. Mathematical models describing the density dependent per capita growth rates play a predominating role in quantifying the risk of extinction. We used population time series data from global population dynamics database (GPDD) to predict the threat status of the species using three commonly used growth models, allowing demographic disturbances. The best fitted model from a set of candidate models is used to evaluate the extinction measures. We observed that there are instances where the intrinsic growth rate is negative, which has not been reported earlier. We show that, in such cases, the extinction probability is high, but the species may adopt some strategy that saves them from extinction. The mathematical implications are described in light of ecological concepts.

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References

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Acknowledgments

Author is thankful to Amiya Ranjan Bhowmick for valuable discussions and editing help in the final version of the manuscript. The author is also thankful to Prof. Joydev Chattopadhay and Dr. Sabyasachi Bhattacharya, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata for giving valuable insights of the ecological and mathematical context of the problem.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Government College of Engineering and Textile Technology, Berhampore, 742101, West Bengal, India

    Bapi Saha

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  1. Bapi Saha
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Correspondence to Bapi Saha .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Mathematics, National Institute of Technology Silchar, Silchar, Assam, India

    Kedar Nath Das

  2. Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India

    Kusum Deep

  3. Department of Paper Technology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India

    Millie Pant

  4. Department of Mathematics, South Asian University, New Delhi, India

    Jagdish Chand Bansal

  5. Department of Computer Science, Liverpool Hope University, Liverpool, United Kingdom

    Atulya Nagar

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Saha, B. (2015). Predicting the Risk of Extinction of Species: Impact of Negative Growth Rate and Allee Effect. In: Das, K., Deep, K., Pant, M., Bansal, J., Nagar, A. (eds) Proceedings of Fourth International Conference on Soft Computing for Problem Solving. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 335. Springer, New Delhi. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-2217-0_39

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-2217-0_39

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, New Delhi

  • Print ISBN: 978-81-322-2216-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-81-322-2217-0

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