Energy in the Power Sector and GHG Emissions: Modeling as an Input to the Formulation of the Next Midterm National Development Plan

  • Nataliawati Siahaan
  • Inez S. Y. Fitri
  • Hakimul BatihEmail author


In 2014, Indonesia is reported as the world’s tenth largest economy in the world. With stable economic growth rate above 5 % per annum in the last 10 years, national energy demand is projected to increase from 712 million barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) in 2010 to 1.3 billion BOE in 2019. Indonesia is highly dependent on fossil fuel. The country has become a net importer of oil with 800,000 barrel oil per day imported that year. In order to reduce the burden of national budget for oil import, the government has established the national energy policy that shifts the main energy source from oil to other sources. It has also set up regulation for developing approximately 20,000 MW of coal-fired power plants (Fast Track Program Phases 1 and 2) at the expense of higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In order to provide an insight for government in developing a strategy for mitigating GHG emission, alternative scenarios of electricity planning are analyzed using the Indonesia Integrated Energy, Economic, and Environmental Modeling (I2E3M) software. The alternative scenarios include higher utilization of renewable energy and demand-side management program. The results confirm that limiting the GHG emission will increase the share of renewable energy in the primary energy mix for electricity generation. By setting GHG emission at 10 % lower than business as usual (BAU) case, the share of renewable energy will be increased to around 15 % in 2020. Moreover, the demand-side management program is another option in reducing GHG emission from electricity generation activities.


Indonesia Power sector GHG emission Energy modeling I2E3M Energy policy Scenario analysis 



The authors would like to express special thanks to Bobby A.T. Wattimena and Aziz Pusakantara for supporting the modeling work and giving the helpful comments on this study.


  1. Badan-Informasi-Geospasial (2014) Nama Rupabumi Merupakan Jati Diri dan Identitas Bangsa Indonesia. Accessed 2 May 2014
  2. BAPPENAS (2014) Ringkasan Eksekutif Menata Perubahan Mewujudkan Indonesia yang Sejahtera, Demokratis dan Berkeadilan: Pencapaian Kinerja Pembangunan KIB I (2004–2009) dan KIB II (2009–2014). Accessed 23 June 2014
  3. BPS (2010) Hasil Sensus Penduduk 2010, Data Agregat per Provinsi. Badan Pusat Statistik. Accessed 6 May 2014
  4. BPS (2014a) Berita Resmi Statistik No. 16/02/Th. XVII. Badan Pusat Statistik. Accessed 5 May 2014
  5. BPS (2014b) Jumlah dan Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk. Accessed 20 May 2014
  6. DEN (2010) Visi dan Misi. Accessed 20 June 2014
  7. EIA (2014) Indonesia full report. Accessed 20 May 2014
  8. IPA (2012) Rising economic growth & energy demand drive need for speedy energy reforms. Accessed May 2014
  9. Kemenkeu (2014) Five driving factors of Indonesia’s achievement of becoming the world’s – 10 largest economy. Accessed 19 May 2014
  10. Kementerian-ESDM (2012) Siaran Pers Sidang Paripurna Ke-1 Dewan Energi NasionalGoogle Scholar
  11. Kementerian-ESDM (2013) Statistik Ketenagalistrikan 2013Google Scholar
  12. Kementerian-ESDM (2014a) 2020, Pemerintah Targetkan Rasio Elektrifikasi 100 %. Accessed 20 May 2014
  13. Kementerian-ESDM (2014b) Feed in tariff policy in Indonesia. Paper presented at the Workshop Smart Grid IEEJ, Jakarta, 17–18 Feb 2014Google Scholar
  14. Kementerian-ESDM (2014c) Wamen ESDM: Kemiri Sunan Efektif Turunkan Impor BBM. Accessed 20 May 2014
  15. Kementerian-Kelautan-dan-Perikanan (2013) 87 % Pulau di Indonesia Tidak Berpenghuni. Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan. Accessed 2 May 2014
  16. PLN (2012a) Annual report 2012, Brighter is better, PT PLN (Persero).
  17. PLN (2012b) Perkembangan Proyek-proyek Kelistrikan. Accessed 23 June 2014
  18. PLN (2012c) RUPTL PT PLN (Persero) 2012–2021Google Scholar
  19. PLN (2013a) Annual report 2013, Good corporate governance’s excellence and innovative operationGoogle Scholar
  20. PLN (2013b) PLN Statistics 2012, vol 2014. PT PLNGoogle Scholar
  21. PLN (2013c) RUPTL PT PLN (Persero) 2013–2022Google Scholar
  22. Swisher JN, Januzzi GM, Redlinger RY (1997) Tools and methods for integrated resource planning: improving energy efficiency and protecting the environment. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment RisØ National Laboratory, RoskildeGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Japan 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  • Nataliawati Siahaan
    • 1
  • Inez S. Y. Fitri
    • 1
  • Hakimul Batih
    • 1
    Email author
  1. 1.Indonesian Institute for Energy EconomicsJakartaIndonesia

Personalised recommendations