Abstract
Many of the most destructive natural disasters of the past few decades occurred in ASEAN or other Pacific Rim countries. Even without these catastrophic infrequent events, some ASEAN members are buffeted by repeated and very frequent natural disasters; and many are very vulnerable to future disasters associated with the changing climate. The chapter employs a typology of disaster impacts that distinguishes between direct and indirect damages; with the indirect costs accounted for in the aggregate by examining variables such as GDP, the fiscal accounts, consumption, investment, and the balance of trade and the balance of payments. These costs can also be further divided between the short- and long-run. These distinctions are used in the discussion that analyzes vulnerabilities in the ASEAN region. The chapter concludes by identifying needed future government policy changes, in particular the construction of better and more robust early-warning systems, and suggests that the best way to incentivize disaster risk reduction (DRR) policy is through a dedicated fund, a Global Fund for DRR, that will support this work.
Keywords
- Natural Disaster
- Disaster Risk Reduction
- Disaster Impact
- Frequent Natural Disaster
- Disaster Risk Reduction Policy
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
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Notes
- 1.
The five most lethal events in Pacific Rim nations (1970-2008) were all initiated by earthquakes: China 1976, Indonesia 2004, China 2008, Peru 1970 and Guatemala 1976. In these five events, 585,000 people died.
- 2.
The Ring of Fire is an inverted U-shape region, whose Western tip is New Zealand. The region then encompasses the archipelagos of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan, the Russian Far East, the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, and then down the Western Coast of the Americas all the way to Tierra Del Fuego at the very southern tip of the continent. This region experiences by far the majority of the volcanic activity and earth movements recorded worldwide.
- 3.
The data is publicly available at: http://www.emdat.be/
- 4.
The following are included: Australia, Canada, Chile, China PR, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Japan, Korea (South), Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Taiwan, United States, and Vietnam.
- 5.
By ‘very likely’ the IPCC refers to 90–100 % probability, while ‘likely’ means 66–100 % probability (IPCC 2011).
- 6.
Different climate models, yield somewhat different results, but the consensus is well represented by this range.
- 7.
A one point increase in earthquake magnitude entails a 10 times increase in earth movement and a 32 times increase in the amount of energy released, so a 9.0 earthquake is dramatically different from an 8.0 one. For historical information about earthquake frequencies, see: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/.
- 8.
An equally plausible explanation for this finding is that newspaper circulation is a representation of more cohesive communities with higher ‘social capital’ (see Aldrich 2012).
- 9.
Loayza et al. (2009) notes that while small disasters may, on average, have a positive impact (as a result of the reconstruction stimulus), large disasters always pose severe negative consequences for the economy in their immediate aftermath.
- 10.
Data obtained from http://www.china.org.cn/china/earthquake_reconstruction/2010-01/25/content_19302110.htm (accessed on 11/11/11).
- 11.
Insurance could be purchased directly (maybe through re-insurance companies), indirectly through the issuance of catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds), or through precautionary savings
- 12.
In addition to FONDEN, Mexico is also one of the biggest issuers of CAT bonds. Even so, the provisioning of FONDEN has recently been insufficient to cover the costs of disasters in 2010 (see http://www.artemis.bm/blog/2010/09/16/fonden-mexicos-disaster-fund-exceeds-its-annual-budget/ accessed 11/12/11).
- 13.
Emanuel, at a Wall Street Journal event (see WSJ Nov. 21, 2008).
- 14.
See, for example, the discussion in Raschky and Weck-Hannemann (2007).
- 15.
Kydland, Finn E., Robert Mundell, Thomas Schelling, Vernon Smith, and Nancy Stokey, 2012. Copenhagen Consensus: Expert Panel Findings. http://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/Admin/Public/DWSDownload.aspx?File=%2fFiles%2fFiler%2fCC12+papers%2fOutcome_Document_Updated_1105.pdf
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Noy, I. (2015). Natural Disaster and Economic Policy for ASEAN and the Pacific Rim: A Proposal for a Disaster Risk Reduction ‘Seal of Approval’ Fund. In: Aldrich, D., Oum, S., Sawada, Y. (eds) Resilience and Recovery in Asian Disasters. Risk, Governance and Society, vol 18. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55022-8_11
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