Modelling a Landslide Probability Through Time as a Basis for the Landslide Hazard Forecast System

Chapter

Abstract

In the past 20 years, intense short- and long-duration rainfall has triggered numerous shallow landslides worldwide, caused extensive material damage to buildings, infrastructure, and roads, and unfortunately also caused loss of human life. Slovenia was no exception in this regard. But these landslide-related problems could be identified and minimised if the knowledge of the landslide occurrence would be upgraded with the more in-depth knowledge of the relationship between the triggering factors (rainfalls) and landslides. In the frame of the national project Masprem, we aim to develop an automated, online tool for predicting landslide hazard forecast at the national level. This tool will provide an early warning system for landslide events in Slovenia, a regional country that is highly vulnerable to extreme meteorological events and to landslides. A system for landslide hazard forecast will be based on the real-time rainfall data, rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering, and the landslide susceptibility map. The proposed system will inform inhabitants of an increased landslide hazard as a consequence of heavy precipitation that would exceed the landslide triggering values.

Keywords

Landslide hazard Early warning system Real-time rainfall Slovenia 

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Copyright information

© Springer Japan KK 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Faculty of Civil and Geodetic EngineeringUniversity of LjubljanaLjubljanaSlovenia
  2. 2.Geological Survey of SloveniaLjubljanaSlovenia

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