Energy Demand Forecast for South East Asia Region: An Econometric Approach with Relation to the Energy Per Capita “Curve”
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This paper will discuss the forecast of final energy consumption from each member country up to 2100. Almost 40 years (1971–2010) of data series of energy consumption had been collected from various sources. Econometrics was then used to predict the energy consumption, based on the population projections of the United Nations (UN) (medium scenario). An energy intensity index (KTOe per capita) from various developed countries was also used (as a reference) in order to measure the potential limits of ASEAN member countries’ energy consumption. A novel approach was taken to modifying standard econometrics approaches with further limiting factors also being defined, such as land to population ratio, population trend, total land area, demographic characteristics and landscape (inland, archipelago, landlocked etc.).
It is predicted that in 2100 the region will require 3.5 GTOe in the medium population scenarios respectively.
KeywordsASEAN Demographic Econometrics Energy demand Energy per capita
The authors were grateful for the support of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan via “Energy Science in the Age of Global Warming” of Global Center of Excellence (G-COE) program (J-051).
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