Abstract
This paper will discuss the forecast of final energy consumption from each member country up to 2100. Almost 40 years (1971–2010) of data series of energy consumption had been collected from various sources. Econometrics was then used to predict the energy consumption, based on the population projections of the United Nations (UN) (medium scenario). An energy intensity index (KTOe per capita) from various developed countries was also used (as a reference) in order to measure the potential limits of ASEAN member countries’ energy consumption. A novel approach was taken to modifying standard econometrics approaches with further limiting factors also being defined, such as land to population ratio, population trend, total land area, demographic characteristics and landscape (inland, archipelago, landlocked etc.).
It is predicted that in 2100 the region will require 3.5 GTOe in the medium population scenarios respectively.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
The Institute of Energy Economic Japan (IEEJ) and ASEAN Center of Energy (ACE), the 3rd ASEAN energy outlook, February 2011
ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE), Electricity & Development in ASEAN (2005) ASEAN Energy Bull 9: 3–4
International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Statistic of non-OECD countries. (2008) IEA Statistic
Utama NA, Ishihara KN, Tezuka T (2012) Power generation optimization in ASEAN by 2030. Energy Power Eng 4:179–314
Utama NA, Ishihara KN, Zhang Q, Tezuka T (2011) 2050 ASEAN electricity demand: case study in Indonesia and Cambodia, zero-carbon energy Kyoto 2010: green energy and technology. Springer, New York
Utama N, Ishihara K, Tezuka T, Zhang Q, Esteban M (2011) Transportation’s impact assessment on construction sector. Low Carbon Econ 2(3):152–158
Karki SK, Mann MD, Salehfar H (2005) Energy and environment in the ASEAN: challenges and opportunities. Energy Policy 33:499–509
Rachmatullah C, Aye L, Fuller RJ (2007) Scenario planning for electricity generation in Indonesia. Energy Policy 35:2352–2359
Agya Utama N, Chayawatto N, Tezuka T, Ishihara KN, Zhang Q (2011) Power generation mixture in South East Asia region. In: Proceeding of the 4th international conference on sustainable energy and environment (SEE), Bangkok, Thailand, 27–29 February 2012
Acknowledgment
The authors were grateful for the support of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan via “Energy Science in the Age of Global Warming” of Global Center of Excellence (G-COE) program (J-051).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2013 Springer Japan
About this paper
Cite this paper
Utama, N.A., Ishihara, K.N., Tezuka, T., Farzaneh, H., McLellan, B., Zhang, Q. (2013). Energy Demand Forecast for South East Asia Region: An Econometric Approach with Relation to the Energy Per Capita “Curve”. In: Yao, T. (eds) Zero-Carbon Energy Kyoto 2012. Green Energy and Technology. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54264-3_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54264-3_3
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Tokyo
Print ISBN: 978-4-431-54263-6
Online ISBN: 978-4-431-54264-3
eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)