Significant Parameters for the Chinese Capital Market

Abstract

After having investigated the current state of China’s capital market, it is necessary to examine which influential parameters might cause a certain type of change in capital market performance, regardless of direction or outcome. This is of particular concern for both capital market participants and those who focus on developing appropriate measures for capital market enhancement in order to increase awareness of potential shifts and recognise tendencies current. As James A. Ogilvy, Peter Schwartz, and Joe Flower have emphasised, “China is a complex adaptive system with billions of variables. We cannot know its future. But we can analyze its present, searching for the deep drivers that are most likely to shape its future.”⁵⁹⁹ The scores of individual variables, however, underlie developments themselves and vary in terms of their importance for capital market performance over time. Therefore, single variables are not examined. Instead, parameters with potential to influence the capital market are considered in the broader spectrum, as was delineated in Chapter 3.3.5.2. These actually entail the numerous variables and allow for observing changes of variables and interactions between them in a wider context which is vital for a precise understanding.

Ogilvy, James A. / Schwartz, Peter with Flower, Joe (2000), p. 17.