Zusammenfassung
Vor dem Ausbruch der Finanzkrise galt das Bankgeschäft als ein relativ vorhersagbares und sicheres Geschäft. In den Folgejahren, gezeichnet von Krisenbewältigung und Restrukturierung ganzer Bankensysteme, rückte die Bankenanalyse vermehrt in den Fokus. Zur Ermittlung der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit bedienen sich die Analysten einer Vielzahl von Vorgehensweisen. Die in der Praxis verwendeten Modelle lassen sich hinsichtlich der verwendeten Kriterien in quantitative und qualitative Analysemodelle unterscheiden. Darüber hinaus kommen vor allem auch Modelle, die eine Kombination aus beiden darstellen, zum Einsatz. Während sich quantitative Bewertungsmethoden auf statistische Auswertungen bspw. von Bilanzkennzahlen beziehen, stützen die qualitativen Modelle ihre Analyse zusätzlich auf Kriterien, die nicht direkt aus der Bilanz ersichtlich sind. Im Rahmen der quantitativen Modelle kann zur Berechnung der Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit das Merton Modell unter Zuhilfenahme der Optionspreistheorie herangezogen werden. Der weit verbreitete z-Score bietet ferner eine einfache Möglichkeit das zukünftige Risiko einer Eigenkapitalverknappung aufzuzeigen. Der z-Score ist jedoch lediglich ein ordinales Maß für die Bestimmung des Ausfallrisikos, da nicht die exakte Höhe des Ausfallrisikos berechnet werden kann. Um schnell eine grobe Einschätzung der finanziellen Situation und möglichen Engpässen zu erhalten, ist die Vorgehensweise allerdings ein probates Mittel.
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Kühlwein, AJ., Burkert, U. (2015). Bankanalyse – wachsende Bedeutung seit der Finanzkrise. In: Everling, O., Goedeckemeyer, KH. (eds) Bankenrating. Gabler Verlag, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-8349-4735-2_8
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