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Migration and Tourism Flows to New Zealand

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Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics

Abstract

This paper uses a gravity model to test whether, all else equal, tourism flows to New Zealand from countries with larger stocks of migrants to New Zealand are larger. It uses an unbalanced panel data set consisting of more than 190 countries that New Zealand has traded with between the years 1981 and 2006. A panel negative binomial model is employed to estimate the multiplicative form of the gravity model. The coefficient of the logarithm of the migrant stock variables is found to be statistically significant, implying that a 10 % increases in immigrants from a country leads to a 2.1 % increase in the number of visitors from that country, all else equal.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Anderson and van Wincoop (2004), for example, have shown that any trade model will give a gravity-like structure provided that the allocation of trade across countries is assumed to be separable from the allocation of production and consumption within countries. Thus, the gravity model can be derived from Heckscher-Ohlin, as well as increasing returns to scale, Ricardian models, and so on (Bergeijk and Brakman 2010).

  2. 2.

    Excellent reviews of gravity models can be found in Anderson (2011) and Bergstrand and Egger (2011).

  3. 3.

    See Gómez-Herrera (2012) for more details and comparisons of different estimation methods.

  4. 4.

    See also Winkelmann (2008), pages 97–98, for more details about consistency of PPML estimators with nonnegative continuous dependent variables.

  5. 5.

    Note that “random effects” and “fixed effects” apply to the distribution of the dispersion parameter, not to the xβ term in the model. Thus, this conditional negative binomial model is not a true fixed-effects method. This is why it is possible to estimate the coefficients of time-invariant regressors in addition to time-varying regressors. See Stata (2009), Cameron and Trivedi (2010), and Allison and Waterman (2002) for more details.

  6. 6.

    http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/bdd/distances.htm

  7. 7.

    Author’s own calculations based on Table 9 in Statistics New Zealand (2012).

  8. 8.

    All these figures are from 2006 Census: QuickStats About Culture and Identity, Statistics New Zealand.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, University of Otago, 67, Dunedin, 9054, New Zealand

    Murat Genç

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  1. Murat Genç
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Correspondence to Murat Genç .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Business, Universidade Lusíada de Lisboa, Rua da Junqueira 188-198, Lisboa, 1349-001, Portugal

    Álvaro Matias

  2. Faculty of Economics, and Business Administration, Free University, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam, 1081 HV, Netherlands

    Peter Nijkamp

  3. School of Economics and Business, Head of the Tourism Department, Universidade Lusíada de Lisboa, Rua da Junqueira 188-198, Lisboa, 1349-001, Portugal

    Manuela Sarmento

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Genç, M. (2013). Migration and Tourism Flows to New Zealand. In: Matias, Á., Nijkamp, P., Sarmento, M. (eds) Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2879-5_7

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