Abstract
Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the DIME Workshop “The Changing Governance of Network Industries”, Naples, 29–30 April 2010, at the 1st DIME Scientific Conference “Knowledge in space and time: economic and policy implications of the knowledge-based economy” in Strasbourg, 7–9 April 2008 and at the 9th IAEE European Energy Conference “Energy Markets and Sustainability in a Larger Europe” in Florence, 10–13 June 2007.
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Notes
- 1.
A chi-square probability of 0.05 or less is commonly interpreted by social scientists as justification for rejecting the null hypothesis that the row variable is unrelated – that is, only randomly related - to the column variable (http://www2.chass.ncsu.edu/garson/pa765/chisq.htm, 19.02.2007)
- 2.
This model is generally suitable for analysing the relationship between a categorical outcome and the independent variables.
- 3.
A common technical solution is that the CHP plant provides heat at a low temperature level that can be used all the year through, e. g. for supplying warm water. An additional central heating boiler is installed to provide additional energy during cold days.
- 4.
Office buildings are omitted to avoid multicollinearity.
- 5.
- 6.
For their mathematical definition see Appendix 1.
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- 9.
Stata Base Reference Manual (2005), p. 211
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Acknowledgements
This paper is an outcome of the research project “Diffusion of innovations in energy efficiency and in climate change mitigation in the public and private sector”. We wish to thank the Volkswagen Foundation for the financial support of this project, the Verband für Wärmelieferung for the data provided and our colleagues Krisztina Kis-Katos and Joachim Schleich for helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper. The authors are solely responsible for remaining mistakes and weaknesses.
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Appendix
Appendix
1.1 A.1 Applying a Multinomial Logistic Model
For each outcome (\( y \)) a set of coefficients, β1 (specialized contractors), β2 (municipal utilities), β3 (real estate enterprises) and β4 (equipment manufactures and consulting engineers) is estimated.
Probability of y = 1 (specialized contractor):
Probability of y = 2 (municipal utility):
Probability of y = 3 (real estate enterprises):
Probability of y = 4 (others):
In order to identify the model β1 is set to zero. Therefore, the other coefficients will measure the change relative to the base outcome, specialized contractor.
In order to detect the strength of the coefficient’s effect, relative risk ratios can be applied. The risk of choosing a municipal utility relative to choosing a specialized contractor is the relative probability of \( y = 2 \) to the base outcome:
The ratio of the relative risk for a one-unit change in xi, e.g. in size, is then
Thus the exponential value of a coefficient is the relative-risk ratio for a one-unit change in the corresponding variable.Footnote 9 Relative risk ratios represent the risk of choosing a municipal utility as a contractor relative to choosing a specialized contractor for each one-unit change in, for example, the SIZE or FREQ measure, holding all other variables constant.
1.2 A.2 Regression Results for a Multinomial Logistic Model of Contract Choice
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Ostertag, K., Hülsmann, F. (2012). Governance Variety in the Energy Service Contracting Market. In: Jansen, D., Ostertag, K., Walz, R. (eds) Sustainability Innovations in the Electricity Sector. Sustainability and Innovation. Physica-Verlag HD. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2730-9_3
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