Abstract
This paper presents a comparative study of six soft computing models namely multilayer perceptron networks, Elman recurrent neural network, radial basis function network, Hopfield model, fuzzy inference system and hybrid fuzzy neural network for the hourly electricity demand forecast of Czech Republic. The soft computing models were trained and tested using the actual hourly load data obtained from the Czech Electric Power Utility for the last seven years (January 1994 — December 2000). A comparison of the proposed techniques is presented for predicting 48 hourly (2 day ahead) demands for electricity. Simulation results indicate that hybrid fuzzy neural network and radial basis function networks are the best candidates for the analysis and forecasting of electricity demand.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Abraham A, Nath B (2001) A neuro-fuzzy approach for forecasting electricity demand in Victoria, Applied Soft Computing Journal, Elsevier Science, Volume 1 /2, pp. 127–138.
Khan MR (2001) “Short term load forecasting for large distribution systems using artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic”, PhD Thesis, UVEE, FEI, VUT Brno, Czech Republic.
Khan MR, Zak L, Ondrůšek Č (2001) “Fuzzy logic based short-term electric load forecasting”, 4th International Scientific Conference “Elektro-2001” Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Zilina, Slovak Republic, ISBN: 80–7100–836–2, pp. 19 – 24.
Khan MR, Ondrůšek Č (2001) The Hopfield model for short-term load prediction, 2nd Spring International Power Engineering Conference, UVEE, FEI, Brno University of Technology, Czech Republic, ISBN: 80–214–1887–7, pp. 81 – 85.
Khan MR, Ondrůšek Č (2001) “Short-term load forecasting with multilayer perceptron and recurrent neural networks”, Accepted for publishing in Journal of Electrical Engineering, Bratislava, Slovak Republic.
Khan MR, Lk L, Ondrůšek Č (2001) “Forecasting weekly electric load Using a hybrid fuzzy-neural network approach”, Accepted for publishing in Engineering Mechanics - International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, Technical University of Brno, Czech Republic.
Khan MR, Ondrůšek Č (2000) “Application of the radial basis function networks to the problem of short-term load forecasting”, Journal “Elektryka”, No. 87, 11/12, PL ISSN 0373–8647, Technical University of Gdansk, Poland, pp. 3–14.
Khan MR, Ondrůšek Č (2000) Short-term electric demand prognosis using artificial neural networks, Journal of Electrical Engineering, Volume 51, No. 11–12, ISSN 1335–3632, Bratislava, Slovak Republic, pp. 296–300.
Mamdani EH, Assilian S (1975) An Experiment in Linguistic Synthesis with a Fuzzy Logic Controller, International Journal of Man-Machine Studies, Vol. 7, No.l, pp. 1–13.
Mori H, Hidenori K (1996) Optimal fuzzy inference for short-term load forecasting, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 390396.
Ranaweera DK, Hubele NF, Karady GG (1996) “Fuzzy logic for short-term load forecasting”, Electrical Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 18, No. 4, pp. 215–222.
Srinivasan D, Chang CS, Liew AC (1995) “Demand forecasting using fuzzy neural computation, with special emphasis on weekend and public holiday forecasting”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 18971903.
Sugeno M (1985), Industrial Applications of Fuzzy Control, Elsevier Science Pub Co.
Vermaak J, Botha EC (1998) “Recurrent neural networks for short-term load forecasting”, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 1, pp. 126132.
Zadeh LA (1998) Roles of Soft Computing and Fuzzy Logic in the Conception, Design and Deployment of Information/Intelligent Systems, Computational Intelligence: Soft Computing and Fuzzy-Neuro Integration with Applications, 0 Kaynak, LA Zadeh, B Turksen, IJ Rudas (Eds.), pp 1–9.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Khan, M.R., Abraham, A., Ondrůšek, Č. (2002). Soft Computing for Developing Short Term Load Forecasting Models in Czech Republic. In: Abraham, A., Köppen, M. (eds) Hybrid Information Systems. Advances in Soft Computing, vol 14. Physica, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-1782-9_16
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-1782-9_16
Publisher Name: Physica, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-7908-1480-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-7908-1782-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive