Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Engineering Geology I. Problem Statement and Introduction to Solution

  • H. H. Einstein
  • G. B. Baecher
Part of the Rock Mechanics book series (ROCK, volume 12)


Probabilistic and Statistical Methods in Engineering Geology — Part I. Uncertainty about geologic conditions and about geotechnical parameters is probably the most distinctive characteristic of geotechnical engineering and engineering geology. Evidence for this are the role of engineering judgement and design approaches that cannot be found in any other engineering discipline. However, a more quantitative and systematic treatment of uncertainty through the use of statistical and probabilistic methods can greatly aid the engineering geologist and geotechnical engineer. In this Supplementum 12 a first part of a paper on this topic will be presented, describing sources of uncertainty and their consequences. Traditional approaches for analyzing uncertainty and their deficiencies are discussed leading to the conclusion that they can gain from being complemented by probabilistic and statistical methods (Part 11 of the paper describing the details of such methods will be pubhshed in a future issue of Rock Mechanics).


Wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretische und statistische Methoden in der Baugeologie — Teil 1. Unsicherheit über geologische Zustände und geotechnische Parameter ist vermutlich das bezeichnendste Merkmal der Geotechnik und der Baugeologie. Dies zeigt sich in der Rolle, welche die Erfahmng spielt, und in Entwurfsprozessen, die in keiner anderen Ingenieurdisziplin zu finden sind. Was aber oft fehlt, ist eine quantitative und systematische Behandlung der Unsicherheit. Durch Einfühmng probabilistischer und statistischer Methoden kann dieser Mangel behoben werden. Der hier publizierte Artikel ist der erste Teil einer Behandlung dieses Themas. Dabei wird zuerst auf die Quellen der Unsicherheit und deren Folgen eingegangen. Dann werden die traditionellen Verfahren zur Behandlung der Unsicherheit diskutiert, was zum Schluß fuhrt, daß sie durch probabilistische und statistische Methoden komplementiert und verbessert werden körmen. (Teil II dieses Artikels, der in einer zukünftigen Ausgabe von Rock Mechanics veröffentlicht werden wird, wird diese Methoden im Detail behandeln).


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 1982

Authors and Affiliations

  • H. H. Einstein
    • 1
  • G. B. Baecher
    • 1
  1. 1.Massachussetts Institute of TechnologyCambridgeUSA

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