Space in the financial and economic crisis

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to analyse the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the space sector from a political point of view. Indeed, it seems technically difficult and methodologically dangerous to make econometric predictions regarding future economic developments. This is particularly valid for the global economic situation, the best example being the regular revision and correction of the economic outlooks of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). In the particular case of the space sector, this uncertainty is lessened by some features that are specific to the space economy (such as the relatively predictable manufacturing cycles in the upstream sector) and by the existence of several consulting firms specialised in providing space-specific economic forecasts.⁵⁷⁵ This contribution however, does not intend either to make a market forecast or to predict when and how the space sector will overcome the crisis. It will rather propose a political analysis based on the thorough observation of the space sector in the last two years, enabling the identification of some political implications and prospects offered by the crisis. Consequently, the focus will be on the institutional space sector rather than on commercial space activities. In addition, Europe will be placed at the centre of the analysis and worldwide trends and developments will always be considered as structural constraints or enablers for the European space sector. Two interrelated central ideas underlie the present article. On the one hand, the crisis can be seen as a test case for the strategic nature of space.