Abstract
Experts and laymen in different historical periods and in different socio-economic systems shared at least on desire: to know their future in advance or even to influence it for their advantage. They used very different approaches and methods from spiritual-religious ones to scientific investigations and various modes of planning. Hence one might bluntly claim that the past (history) of mankind can be written by analysing these different attitudes, methods and approaches towards the future. Recently yet another ‘future-oriented’ method is being used in an ever increasing number of countries, namely (technology) foresight. It has almost reached that point when it is too fashionable, and too much expectations surround it, and thus it is bound to fail.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Cuhls, K.; Kuwahara, T.: Outlook for Japanese and German Future Technologies, Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag, Springer Publishers 1994.
Fleissner, P. et al.: Recent national foresight studies, Sevilla: IPTS 1998.
Gavigan, J.P.;Cahill, E.: Overview of recent European and non-European national technology foresight studies, Sevilla: IPTS 1997.
Georghiou: The UK Technology Foresight Programme. In: Futures, vol. 28, 1996, no. 4, S. 359–377.
Grupp, H.: Technology at the Beginning of the 21u Century. In: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, vol. 6, 1994, no. 4, S. 379–409.
Grupp, H.: Foresight in Science and Technology: Selected methodologies and recent activities in Germany. In: OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, no. 17, 1996, S. 71–100.
Irvine, J; Martin, B.: Foresight in Science: Picking the winners, London: Frances Pinter 1984.
Irvine, J; Martin, B.: Research Foresight: Creating the future, Zoetermeer: Netherlands Ministry of Education and Science 1989.
Kuwahara, T.: Technology Foresight in Japan: A new approach in methodology and analysis. In: OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, no. 17, 1996, S. 52–70.
Martin, B.: Technology Foresight: A review of recent government exercises. In: OECD STI Review, Special Issue on Government Technology Foresight Exercises, no. 17, 1996, S. 15–50.
OST: The Future in Focus: A summary of national foresight programmes, London: HMSO 1998.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2000 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Havas, A. (2000). Foresight in a small country in transition: Preliminary lessons of the Hungarian Technology Foresight Programme. In: Häder, M., Häder, S. (eds) Die Delphi-Technik in den Sozialwissenschaften. ZUMA-Publikationen. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-663-09682-5_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-663-09682-5_5
Publisher Name: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden
Print ISBN: 978-3-531-13523-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-663-09682-5
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive