Abstract
If there is one single parameter on which the so often denounced lack of sustainability of mankind’s current way of life and economy is most often pinned, it is probably energy consumption. Indeed, global energy consumption has exploded over the last 100 years and is now almost nine times higher than it was in 1920, while the world’s population has grown by a factor of only four. Around 85% of this energy consumption is covered by fossil fuels (i.e., energy sources that were created in previous eras and stored in the earth’s crust): Coal, oil and natural gas.
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Notes
- 1.
Between 1960 and today, the energy efficiency of the global economy has doubled – and the expectation is realistic that it will double again (at least) in the next 50 years.
- 2.
We calculate here with 30−40 million km2 area with a solar radiation of 1500−2000 kWh/m2.
- 3.
Synthetic fuels are liquid or gaseous hydrocarbons that are chemically largely identical to petroleum-derived gasoline/kerosene or natural gas, but are CO2-neutral: They are synthesized in large-scale plants from hydrogen (obtained via electrolysis mainly from PV or wind power) and CO2, and when burned emit as much CO2 as was used to produce them.
- 4.
According to a study published in 2019, there is a potential of about 420 PWh/year for offshore wind farms alone.
- 5.
6000 PWh/year is about 30 times the projected annual energy consumption of humanity in this century.
- 6.
You may be wondering whether there are enough raw materials for the solar panels to support such a dramatic expansion in the use of photovoltaics. Well, the main raw material is silicon, and according to today’s technology, about 2 Gt of silicon is needed to produce the necessary approx. 200 TW of PV modules. However, the natural deposit in the earth’s crust of silicon is 100 million Gt.
- 7.
The transport from the centers of production of hydrogen/synthetic fuels to all parts of the world can – like today’s transport of coal, crude oil and natural gas – be carried out partly via pipelines and mainly via shipping. The existing infrastructure can be used to a considerable extent for this purpose.
- 8.
Scientists working on current nuclear fusion projects assume that they will be able to build the first commercially viable power plant as early as around 2050.
- 9.
In addition to renewable energies, conventional nuclear power can provide part of the solution in an number of countries. However, such power plants are considerably more expensive today than a PV/wind-system (incl. Storage capacities etc.), and they have other drawbacks. New developments are underway, but all available studies to date estimate the contribution of (conventional) nuclear energy in an CO2-free world in 2050/2060 to be below 10%.
- 10.
In Germany, newly built large PV plants supply electricity for well under 5 ct/kWh. The latest large-scale plants in the Middle East even produce PV electricity for less than 1.5 ct/kWh. By comparison, the fuel costs of a fossil fuel power plant alone have averaged 2.5−4 ct/kWh over the past decade.
- 11.
In the last 30 years (1990−2020), global economic output has grown by an average factor of 2.2 per year.
- 12.
For Germany, this result has been confirmed in detail in several studies. There, the effects of an ambitious climate policy on prosperity and jobs for 2050 have also been estimated. The result: The overall impact is small – other factors will play a much more important role. See, e.g.,Federation of German Industries (BDI). (“Climate Paths for Germany,” 2018).
- 13.
For the next decades (i.e. for a transitional period), an important alternative can be and probably will be the socalled CCS/CCU-technology. Here, the CO2 is filtered out of the exhaust gases of fossil power plants, and then partly stored underground, partly reused. It doesn’t look like this technology can compete cost-wise with renewables in the long run – especially not in many countries in Asia and Africa that have excellent conditions for PV power.
- 14.
Much of this energy has been imported in recent decades, but only for economic reasons: In principle, the Western countries’ own fossil deposits would be quite sufficient to supply themselves with energy.
- 15.
In these two sectors, the energy yield from fossil fuels is particularly poor: in electricity generation, it is 40−50%; in automobiles, it is only 20−30%.
- 16.
10−12 PWh correspond to a capacity of 5 TW PV modules. This is, of course, a rough calculation, intended only to show the dimensions and technical feasibility using PV power. It could be that, for example, CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) technology proves to be more suitable for the conditions in Saudi Arabia. However, CSP land requirements are of a similar order of magnitude to those of PV technology.
References
Reports from international organizations
IEA (2019), World Energy Outlook 2019: iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2019
Books and articles
BP (2019), BP Energy Outlook 2019, bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/energy-outlook/bp-energy-outlook-2019.pdf
McKinsey (2019), Global Energy Perspective 2019, mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/global-energy-perspective-2019#
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Unnerstall, T. (2022). Energy. In: Factfulness Sustainability. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-65558-0_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-65558-0_9
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