Abstract
Will you participate in a little experiment? What do you estimate is the percentage of the earth’s surface (including the oceans) that has been fundamentally reshaped by humans to date, i.e. is used for buildings, traffic routes, arable land and raw material extraction?
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Notes
- 1.
This area figure is based not only on the actual mine areas; buffer zones with a radius of 5 km around the mine in each case are also included.
- 2.
The extent of forest cover on the earth’s solid surface has been subject to strong fluctuations in the course of the earth’s history. By “original” we mean here: after the end of the last ice age about 12,000 years ago.
- 3.
Exactly the same development can be observed for pasture land: Here, too, new areas were occupied by livestock mainly between 1900 and 1960; for the last 20 years, the area under pasture has actually been declining slightly.
- 4.
- 5.
Crop farming is therefore also practiced on approx. three million km2 of land that is actually less suitable.
- 6.
Some of this would be at the expense of current pasture, some at the expense of other areas with mixed vegetation.
- 7.
If I use the expression “due to climate change” here and generally in this book without further specifications, the question arises what extent of climate change I am referring to: after all, it is not at all clear today how fast mankind will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to what values the expected (further) temperature increase can be limited as a consequence. I base this book on a medium scenario (RCP 4.5 or RCP 6.0 in scientific terms) with a temperature rise of 2.5−3 degrees by 2100: a scenario, in other words, in which the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement are not achieved, but considerable efforts are nevertheless made to combat climate change.
- 8.
Zabel et al. (2014).
- 9.
- 10.
This is a net consideration: due to soil erosion, it is expected that up to two million km2 of current arable land will be lost to crop farming in the next 40–50 years, i.e., will have to be put to other uses (cf. Chap. 7, Excursion). It can therefore be expected that a total of up to three million km2 of arable land will be newly developed.
- 11.
The area used for raw material extraction will not increase significantly with the foreseeable end of the coal age.
- 12.
This applies except for possible uses for PV and wind plants, cf. Chap. 9
References
Reports from international organizations
EU (2018), World Atlas of Desertification: wad.jrc.ec.europa.eu/download
FAO (2011), The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture: fao.org/3/i1688e/i1688e.pdf
FAO (2012), World Agriculture towards 2030/2050: fao.org/3/ap106e/ap106e.pdf
Books and articles
Molotoks A, Stehfest E, Doelman J, Albanito F, Fitton N, Dawson T, Smith P (2018), “Global Projections of future cropland expansion to 2050,” Global Change Biology 24 (12)
Zabel F, Putzenlechner B, Mauser W (2014), “Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions,” PLOS ONE 9(12): e114980
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Unnerstall, T. (2022). Land Use. In: Factfulness Sustainability. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-65558-0_6
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