Abstract
So far we have assumed common knowledge about the (state-contingent) pay-offs of assets. Imagine now that some agents know the payoffs better than others. Then – besides intertemporal substitution, risk sharing and betting on the occurrence of the states of the world – a seller of an asset might want to sell it because he knows it has very low pay-offs. Anticipating this no agent would buy at a price allowing the seller to make a profit and ultimately no transaction is made. In the subprime mortgage crisis this aspect of asset markets became overwhelming so that asset markets broke down completely.
All of the books in the world contain no more information than is broadcast as video in a single large American city in a single year – Not all bits have equal value. Carl Sagan
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Notes
- 1.
More information on information revealed by prices is revealed in [GH90].
- 2.
Risk-neutrality is just a simplification. The statements easily carry over to a setting with risk-averse agents.
- 3.
In fact Bayes’ rule states that \(\text{posterior} = \text{conditional likelihood} \cdot \text{prior}/\text{likelihood}\), in symbols \(\mathcal{P}(R = r\vert e) = \mathcal{P}(e\vert R = r) \cdot \mathcal{P}(R = r)/\mathcal{P}(e)\), where \(\mathcal{P}(R = r\vert e)\) denotes the probability that a random variable R takes the value r, given the signal e.
- 4.
The bank can force its own conditions on the firm, because it is the only potential financier but not obliged to grant any credit. It is only limited by the firm’s willingness to participate. Therefore it needs to choose conditions such that the firm is still interested.
- 5.
Compare [GH85] for further information.
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Hens, T., Rieger, M.O. (2016). Information Asymmetries on Financial Markets. In: Financial Economics. Springer Texts in Business and Economics. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-49688-6_7
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