Climate Change: Historical Simulations and Projections
Sections 2.1 and 2.2 present the evaluations of CMIP5 models in reproducing the historical climate change and projections of future climate change under three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 in terms of surface air temperature and precipitation over the globe and China; Sect. 2.3 presents the atmospheric circulations over the Asia-Pacific region in terms of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) (Guo, Acta Geograph Sin 38(3):208–217, 1983), Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) area and strength (Liu et al., J Appl Meteorol Sci 23(4):414–423, 2012), Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Thompson and Wallace, Geophys Res Lett 25:1297–1300, 1998), and Siberian High (SH) (Wu and Wang, Geophys Res Lett 29(19):1897, 2002); and Sect. 2.4 presents the climate extremes in China. The analyzed climate extreme elements include surface air maximum temperature and surface air minimum temperature, consecutive dry days – maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation (CDD) – and simple daily precipitation intensity (SDII) (Frisch et al., Clim Res 19:193–212, 2002). The historical climatology is set to long-term mean over 1986–2005. In projection, the uncertainty range is given described by one inter-model standard deviation.
In Sect. 2.5, the simulation ability and future change of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed by using 21 CMIP5 models. Finally, Sect. 2.6 provides the simulated historical Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice area (SIA) by 22 coupled climate models from CMIP5. The SIA is defined as the total area with at least 15 % sea ice in Northern Hemisphere. The projected future changes of Northern Hemisphere SIC and SIA under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are also shown.