Skip to main content

Truths about Simpson’s Paradox: Saving the Paradox from Falsity

  • Conference paper
Logic and Its Applications (ICLA 2015)

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNTCS,volume 8923))

Included in the following conference series:

Abstract

There are three questions associated with Simpson’s paradox (SP): (i) Why is SP paradoxical? (ii) What conditions generate SP? and (iii) How to proceed when confronted with SP? An adequate analysis of the paradox starts by distinguishing these three questions. Then, by developing a formal account of SP, and substantiating it with a counter-example to causal accounts, we argue that there are no causal factors at play in answering questions (i) and (ii). Causality enters only in connection with action.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Bandyopadhyay, P.S., Nelson, D., Greenwood, M., Brittan, G., Berwald, J.: The logic of Simpson’s paradox. Synthese 181, 185–208 (2011)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  2. Bandyopadhyay, P.S., Greenwood, M., Dcruz, Don Wallace F., Venkata Raghavan, R.: Simpson’s Paradox and Causality. Am Philos Quart. (forthcoming)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Blyth, C.: On Simpson’s Paradox and the Sure-Thing Principle. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 67(338), 364–366 (1972)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  4. Field, H.: Saving Truth from Paradox. Oxford University Press, Oxford (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Glymour, C.: Critical Notice. James Woodward’s Making Things Happen: A Theory of Causal Explanation. Brit. J. Philos. Sci. 55, 779–790 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Good, I., Mitttal, Y.: The amalgamation and geometry of two-by-two contingency tables. Annals of Statistics 15(2), 694–711 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Lycan, W.G.: What, exactly, is a paradox? Analysis 70(4), 615–622 (2010)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Meek, C., Glymour, C.: Conditioning and Intervening. Brit. J. Philos. Sci. 45, 1001–1021 (1994)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. Pearl, J.: Causality. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2009)

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Pearl, J.: Comment: Understanding Simpson’s Paradox. Am. Stat. 68(1), 8–13 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Priest, G.: The logic of paradox. J. Philos. Logic. 8(1), 219–241 (1979)

    Article  MATH  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  12. Quine, W.V.O.: The Ways of Paradox and Other Essays. Revised and Enlarged. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (1976)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Sorensen, R.: A Brief History of the Paradox. Oxford University Press (2003)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Sainsbury, R.M.: Paradoxes, 3rd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2009)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  15. Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., Scheines, R.: Causation, Prediction, and Search. MIT Press, Cambridge (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Wheeler, G.: Two Puzzles concerning measures of uncertainty and the positive Boolean connectives. In: Neves, J., Santos, M.F., Machado, J.M. (eds.) EPIA 2007. LNCS (LNAI), vol. 4874, pp. 170–180. Springer, Heidelberg (2007)

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  17. Yule, G.U.: Notes on the Theory of Association of Attributes in Statistics. Biometrika 2(2), 121–134 (1903)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Bandyopadhyay, P.S., Raghavan, R.V., Dcruz, D.W., Brittan, G. (2015). Truths about Simpson’s Paradox: Saving the Paradox from Falsity. In: Banerjee, M., Krishna, S.N. (eds) Logic and Its Applications. ICLA 2015. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 8923. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-45824-2_4

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-45824-2_4

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-662-45823-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-45824-2

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics