Kondratieff and the Theory of Linear Filters

Abstract

The discussion of long waves began with the publication of Kondratieff’s essay in 1926, in which he examined 22 economic time series for Germany, France, England, and the USA with regard to the existence of long cyclical fluctuations. He noted that the movement of the elements examined showed great cycles from the end of the eighteenth to the beginning of the twentieth century. The movement is cyclical in nature, which means that it clearly differs from long-term changes in the series, which Kondratieff called the general tendency or secular trend. The essential feature of this long wave is that the different periods alternate in a cyclical way and thus seems to be law-governed. In contrast, the trend, whose course is also subject to certain changes, is not cyclical, i.e., it does not show a set pattern of upswings and downswings. Using his statistical analyses Kondratieff gave a fairly detailed description of the nature of these cycles.

• (1) The length of the cycles fluctuates between 48 and 60 years.

• (2) The cycles for the different series are highly synchronous, i.e., the upswing and downswing phases of the various indicators largely run parallel to each other.

• (3) Long waves are an international phenomenon: the periods of these cycles are almost identical for all European capitalist countries.