Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction: Four Paradigms
About a million earthquakes of magnitude 2 or more are registered each year worldwide. About a hundred of them cause serious damage and once or twice in a decade, a catastrophic earthquake occurs. The vulnerability of our world to earthquakes is rapidly growing due to well-known global trends: proliferation of high-risk construction, such as nuclear power plants, high dams, radioactive waste disposals, lifelines, etc.; deterioration of the ground and destabilization of engineering infrastructures in megacities; destabilization of the environment; population growth; and other factors, including the escalating socioeconomic volatility of the global village. Today a single earthquake with subsequent ripple effects may take up to a million of lives; cause material damage up to $1012; destroy a megacity; trigger a global economic depression (e.g. if it occurs in Tokyo); trigger ecological catastrophe rendering a large territory inhabitable; and destabilize the military balance in a region (e.g., the Middle East). Regions of low seismicity became highly vulnerable; among them are the European and Indian platforms and central and eastern United States. These regions harbor scores of vulnerable megacities such as New York, Moscow and Rome.
KeywordsFalse Alarm Fault Zone Strong Earthquake Prediction Algorithm Earthquake Prediction
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