Abstract
Economic development and sound environmental management are complementary. Development can contribute to improved environmental management, and a healthy environment is essential for sustaining development. [World Bank, 1992b]
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If natural resources really grew scarcer over time, we would expect to see a long-run upward trend in their prices. Unfortunately for the World modelers, this is diametrically opposed to the historical record, which shows generally falling prices during the last century. See Simon (1981) for a discussion of this issue.
The page numbers for The Limits to Growth refer to the Signet (New York) paperback edition.
We obtained a copy of his thesis by writing to Dr. Anthony C. Picardi, 58 Washburn Avenue, Wellesley, Massachusetts, 02181, USA. We obtained this address from Barney et al., 1991.
The drought in the early 1970s was not exceptionally severe by historical standards. Picardi presents evidence suggesting that a similar period of drought occurred twice before in the 20th century, roughly at 30-year intervals.
An excellent choice of settings for future work in this area would be the Sudan. In northern Sudan, the pressures of increasing human and animal populations have been causing increased desertification. As a consequence, nomadic people have been pushed southward causing intertribal warfare. A model of the Sudan, then, could weigh the costs of such environmentally caused conflicts against the costs of policies which could avoid them.
The total fertility rate is the average number of live births a woman would have over her lifetime, given the observed fertility behavior of a given period.
There are nearly 400 references in the bibliography of the World Development Report 1992: Development and the Environment (World Bank, 1992b). The vast majority of these were written in the past two decades. Even this bibliography is hardly complete. For example, no work done by Julian Simon or his collaborators appears there.
See Gilbert and Braat (1991) for a general description of the model and for some case studies. The ECCO framework was first described in an unpublished paper by Slesser in 1984 (see Slesser, 1991) and subsequently elaborated in Slesser and King (1988).
A good starting point for studying these models is The Energy Journal Special Issue on Global Warming 12(1), 1991. It contains applications of some currently active models and references to many others.
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© 1994 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Sanderson, W.C. (1994). Simulation Models of Demographic, Economic, and Environmental Interactions. In: Lutz, W. (eds) Population — Development — Environment. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03061-5_3
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