Main Results of the Bonn—IIASA Research Project

Summary

This chapter presents the main results of the Bonn—IIASA Research Project on economic growth and structural change as far as the work of the central group is concerned. First, the model is outlined. The basic assumptions about the main driving forces of the economic development (technical progress and capital accumulation) are stated, and finally the results (given in the Annexes) are discussed. They may be summarized as follows. The growth process will continue, but at a slower rate. The CMEA countries will come nearer to the OECD countries, but not much. Within the group of the OECD countries, some smaller ones will pass the USA as far as labor productivity and standard of life is concerned. Some developing countries (especially Black Africa and India) will stay behind so that the world income distribution will further deteriorate. The developing countries (with the exception of the oil-exporting countries), the USA and some European countries will keep their trade deficit, though (in the case of the USA) it will decline.