Economic Structural Changes: The Problems of Forecasting
An accuracy analysis of several long-term forecasts of the US economy was performed from the structural point of view. More disaggrated industrial levels usually provide less correct forecasts of structural changes. The main reason for this is the lack of explicit accounting for technological progress in models used for prediction. Thus, the problems of structural change forecasting plague the technological as well as the industrial level.
KeywordsTechnological Progress Electrical Machinery Government Purchase Correct Forecast Fabricate Metal Product
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