Economic Structural Changes: The Problems of Forecasting

  • Iouri Tchijov


An accuracy analysis of several long-term forecasts of the US economy was performed from the structural point of view. More disaggrated industrial levels usually provide less correct forecasts of structural changes. The main reason for this is the lack of explicit accounting for technological progress in models used for prediction. Thus, the problems of structural change forecasting plague the technological as well as the industrial level.


Technological Progress Electrical Machinery Government Purchase Correct Forecast Fabricate Metal Product 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Almon, C. et al. (1985), Interindustry Forecasts of the American Economy, 2nd edition. ( Lexington, MA: Heath—Lexington).Google Scholar
  2. Ayres, R. and Miller, S. (1983), Robotics: Applications and Social Implications. (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press).Google Scholar
  3. Council of Economic Advisors (1986), Economic Report of the President. ( Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office).Google Scholar
  4. Levitsky, E., Menshikov, S., and Tchijov, I. (1975), American Economy Modeling. Novosibirsk [in Russian].Google Scholar
  5. Leontief, W. and Duchin, F. (1986), The Future Impact of Automation on Workers. ( New York: Oxford University Press).Google Scholar
  6. Mansfield, E. (1986), The Economics of Technological Change. ( New York: Norton & Co.).Google Scholar
  7. Preston, R. (1972), The Wharton Annual and Industry Forecasting Model. (Philadelphia, PA: Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania).Google Scholar
  8. Tchijov, I. (1981), The Problems of Long-Term Forecasting of a Market Economy by Using Macroeconomic Models. In: A. Bakaev and I. Tchijov (eds.), The Problems of Capitalist Economy Modeling. Novosibirsk [in Russian].Google Scholar
  9. Tchijov, I. (1987), The Cyclical Dynamics of Diffusion Rates. IIASA Working Paper WP-87–14. (Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis).Google Scholar
  10. US Department of Commerce (1986), US Industrial Outlook. ( Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office).Google Scholar
  11. Syracuse University Research Corporation (1964), The United States and the World in the 1985 Era. (Syracuse, NY: SURC ).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1989

Authors and Affiliations

  • Iouri Tchijov

There are no affiliations available

Personalised recommendations