Summary
This chapter contains the results of analysis and forecasts of the Czechoslovak economy covering the period 1970–2000. We have used an econometric macro-model which explains the relationships between basic indicators of the Czechoslovak economy, as well as the foreign trade flows between European CMEA countries. The ex post analysis indicates the sources of slowdown in economic growth: deterioration of some external economic conditions and relative exhaustion of extensive growth resources are identified as the main negative factors. Conditional forecasts show that the planned long-term growth targets would be feasible under certain changes in economic structure and management, e.g., more investment to reduce the material and energy intensity of production.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Dobrinsky, R. (1985), Aggregated Macroeconomic Models of the European CMEA Countries. Paper prepared for the IIASA Workshop on Economic Growth and Structural Change, Lodz, Poland, December 9–10.
Green, D.W. (1977), The Use of Econometric Methods in the Analysis of Centrally Planned Economies: The SRI-WEFA Experience, Journal of Comparative Economics, 1, pp. 259–275.
Hlavne smery hospodarskeho a socialneho rozvoja CSSR na roky 1986 az 1990 a vyhlad do roku 2000 [Main guidelines for economic and social development of the CSSR for the period 1986–1990 and prospects up to the year 2000], (1986). (Bratislava: Pravda, April 3 ).
Klas, A. (1985), System modelov pre makroekonomicke analyzy a jeho pouzitie pri simulaciach vyvoja ekonomiky [A system of models for macroeconomic analysis and its use in the simulation of economic development], Ekonomicko-matematicky obzor, 21, pp. 241–265.
Klein, L.R. (1976), Five-Year Experience of Linking National Econometric Models and of Forecasting International Trade, in: H. Glejser (ed.), Quantitative Studies of International Economic Relations. ( Amsterdam: North-Holland ).
Krelle, W. (1985), The State of the Bonn-IIASA Research Project. Paper prepared for the IIASA Workshop on Economic Growth and Structural Change, Lodz, Poland, December 9–10.
Lovell, C.A.K. (1968), Capacity Utilization and Production Function Estimation in Postwar American Manufacturing, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 83, pp. 219–239.
Sujan, I. (1982a), Analyza podielov jednotlivych faktorov na spomaleni tempa rastu ceskoslovenskej ekonomiky v rokoch 1975–1980 [An analysis of the factor contributions to the deceleration in the growth rate of the Czechoslovak economy in the period 1975–1980], Politicka ekonomie, 30, pp. 595–610.
Sujan, I. (1982b), Simulations of Restoring the External Economic Equilibrium of Czechoslovakia. Paper presented to the 6th International Conference on the Econometric Modeling of the Socialist Economies, Budapest, Hungary, March.
Sujan, I. (1984), Modeling the Foreign Trade Flows in the System of Models of the European CMEA Countries. An invited paper for the 8th International Conference on Econometric Modeling of the Socialist Economies, Lodz, Poland, October.
Sujan, I. (1985), The Use of Econometric Macromodels under Changing Conditions in Centrally Planned Economies. An invited paper for the 9th International Conference on Models and Forecasts ‘85, Bratislava, Czechoslovakia, October.
Sujan, I. and Strauch, D. (1986), Ekonometricky makromodel reprodukcneho procesu CSSR [Econometric macromodels of the Czechoslovak economy, Ekonomickomatematicky obzor, 22.
UN (1986), Economic Survey of Europe in 1985–1986. ( Geneva: United Nations ).
Vanous, J. (1980), An Econometric Model of Soviet and Eastern European Foreign Trade, Discussion paper 88–30. ( Vancouver: University of British Columbia ).
Zeman, K. (1986), The Driving Forces of Structural Change in the Czechoslovak Economy till the Year 2000. Paper presented at the Task Force Meeting on Economic Growth and Structural Change, Sofia, Bulgaria, June 24–25.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1989 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Sujan, I. (1989). Economic Development of the CSSR: Analysis and Conditional Forecasts. In: Krelle, W. (eds) The Future of the World Economy. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02586-4_21
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02586-4_21
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-662-02588-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-662-02586-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive