Abstract
The preceding chapter provided insights into experts’ perception of the future of various aspects of higher education. It looked at diverse developments in higher education whose occurrence is possible in an isolated way. In the context of the foresight process, this isolated view does not yet provide a basis for transfer to practice. Therefore, an additional step must be integrated into the research process. This consists of interpreting the real-time Delphi survey’s results in an interconnected way. This chapter describes the step of interpreting the results in the form of scenarios. It includes a focus on higher education institutions to enable the transfer of research results.
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Notes
- 1.
This scale was converted from text form to numerical form. The value should be interpreted as follows: 0.0 = no impact; 0.3 = weak impact; 0.5 = medium impact; 0.7 = high impact; 1.0 = very high impact.
- 2.
Kisgen (2017) has calculated the index of leverage for all projections in addition to the mentioned key ratios. This indicator was not integrated in the context of this thesis since the information to be gained by this index can already be identified with the help of the aforementioned key ratios.
- 3.
One technique for developing scenarios that emphasizes alternative scenarios is the scenario axis technique. Here, four scenarios are formed along two axes and the combination of the opposite poles. See Kosow and Gaßner (2008); Wack (1985).
- 4.
For the term VUCA world, see N. Bennett and Lemoine (2014); Millar et al. (2018).
- 5.
The term is a hybrid originating from cooperation and competition. It refers to a game-theoretical model of cooperation that focuses on collaborations with competitors. See Brandenburger and Harborne Jr. (1996); Brandenburger and Nalebuff (1996).
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Lange, N. (2023). Scenario Technique. In: Future Perspectives for Higher Education. Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-40712-4_8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-40712-4_8
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