Zusammenfassung
Viele Risikomanagementprogramme in Unternehmen sind nicht so wirksam, wie sie sein könnten oder sollten. Dies ist auf viele übersehene Faktoren zurückzuführen, wie z. B. motivationale und kognitive Verzerrungen. Obwohl es viel theoretische und empirische Literatur zum Thema Voreingenommenheit gibt, wird es im ERM nur selten behandelt. Viele Studien zeigen, dass Fehler bei der Risikoermittlung und -bewertung die Ergebnisse verzerren. Auch können Entscheidungen, die aus dem Risikomanagementprozess abgeleitet werden, suboptimal sein. Im Folgenden werden einige der wichtigsten Verzerrungen bei der Risikoanalyse diskutiert. Wir stellen entsprechende Entschärfungsstrategien vor.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Literatur
Al-Shammari, M., & Masri, H. (2016). Ethical and Social Perspectives on Global Business Interaction in Emerging Markets. Hershey, Pennsylvania: IGI Global.
Asch, S. E. (1956). Studies of independence and conformity: I. A minority of one against a unanimous majority. Psychological Monographs, 70 (9), 1–70.
Baer, T., Heiligtag, S., & Samandari, H. (2017). The business logic in debiasing. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/the-business-logic-in-debiasing. Zugegriffen am 17 December 2018.
Barnes, J. H. (1984). Cognitive Biases and Their Impact on Strategic Planning. Strategic Management Journal, 5 (2), 129–137.
Baron, J., Hershey, J. C. (1988). Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 54 (2). 569–579.
Baron, J., Gowda, R., & Kunreuther, H. (1993). Attitudes toward managing hazardous waste: What should be cleaned up and who should pay for it? Risk Analysis, 13, 183–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1993.tb01068.x.
Berger, L., Bleichrodt, H., & Eeckhoudt, L. (2013). Treatment decisions under ambiguity. Journal of Health Economics, 32, 559–569.
Bodemer, N., Ruggeri, A., & Galesic, M. (2013). When Dread Risks Are More Dreadful than Continuous Risks: Comparing Cumulative Population Losses over Time. PLS ONE, 8 (6), 1–6.
Cassotti, M., Habib, M., Poirel, N., Aïte, A., Houdé, O., & Moutier, S. (2012). Positive emotional context eliminates the framing effect in decision-making. Emotion, 12 (5), 926–931.
Celati, L. (2004). The Dark Side of Risk Management: How People Frame Decisions in Financial Markets. London: Prentice Hall.
Cherry, K. (2018a). Understanding the Optimism Bias. AKA the Illusion of Invulnerability. https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-the-optimism-bias-2795031. Zugegriffen am 11 December 2018.
Cherry, K. (2018b). How the Status Quo Bias Affects Your Decisions. https://www.verywellmind.com/status-quo-bias-psychological-definition-4065385. Zugegriffen am 11 December 2018.
Clayton, M. (2011). Risk Happen: Managing risk and avoiding failure in buisness projects. London: Marshall Cavendish International.
de Bono, E. (1999). Six thinking hats. Boston: Back Bay Book.
Dobelli, R. (2018). Die Kunst des klaren Denkens. 52 Denkfehler, die Sie besser anderen überlassen. München: Deutscher Taschenbuch-Verlag.
Easley, D., & O’Hara, M. (2009). Ambiguity and nonparticipation: the role of regulation. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(5), 1817–1843.
Edwards, W. (1982). Conservatism in Human Information Processing (excerpted). In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Ellsberg, D. (1961). Risk, ambiguity, and the savage axioms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75 (4), 643–669.
Emmons, D. L., Mazzuchi, T. A., Sarkani, S., & Larsen, C. E. (2018). Mitigating cognitive biases in risk identification: Practitioner checklist for the aerospace sector. Defense Acquisition Research Journal, 25 (1), 52–93.
Finucane, M. L., Alhakami, A., Slovic, P., & Johnson, S. M. (2000). The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 13 (1), 1–17.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1978). Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 4, 330–344.
Friedman, H. H. (2017). Cognitive Biases that Interfere with Critical Thinking and Scientific Reasoning: A Course Module. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2958800.
Gigerenzer, G. (2004). Dread risk, September 11, and fatal traffic accidents. Psychol. Sci. 15, 286–287
Gigerenzer. G., Mata, J., & Frank, R. (2009). Public knowledge of benefits of breast and prostate cancer screening in Europe. J Nat Cancer Inst, 101, 1216–1220.
Gino, F., Moore, D. A., Bazerman, M. H. (2009). No harm, no foul: The outcome bias in ethical judgements. https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/08-080_1751f2c7-abe2-402b-9959-1d8190ebf62a.pdf. Zugegriffen am 13 October 2020.
Gleißner, W. (2017). Grundlagen des Risikomanagements. Mit fundierten Informationen zu besseren Entscheidungen (3rd Ed.). München: Verlag Franz Vahlen.
Grinnell, R. M., & Unrau, Y. A. (2018). Social Work Research and Evaluation. Foundations of Evidence-Based Practice (11th Ed.). New York: Oxford University Press.
Hossain, T., & Li, K. K. (2013). Crowding Out in the Labor Market: A Prosocial Setting Is Necessary. Management Science, 60 (5), 1148–1160. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1807.
Hubbard, D. W. (2009). The failure of risk management. Why it’s broken and how to fix it. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Kaba, A., Wishart, I., Fraser, K., Coderre, S., & McLaughlin, K. (2016). Are we at risk of groupthink in our approach to teamwork interventions in health care? Medical Education, 50 (4), 400–408.
Kahneman, D. (2007). Short Course in Thinking About Thinking. https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/kahneman07/kahneman07_index.html.
Kahneman, D. (2012). Schnelles Denken, langsames Denken (3rd Ed.). München: Siedler Verlag.
Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgement. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 49–81). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kamal, P. (2018). How To Spot These Cognitive Biases To Make You Smarter. And Strategies To Make It Work For You. https://medium.com/@piyush2911/how-to-spot-these-cognitive-biases-to-make-you-smarter-4649a82b5a6c. Zugegriffen am 22 November 2018.
Karau, S. J., & Williams, K. D. (1997). The effects of group cohesiveness on social loafing and social compensation. Group Dynamics: Theory, Research, and Practice, 1, 156–168.
Kelman, H. C. (1958). Compliance, identification, and internalization: three processes of attitude change. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2, 51–60.
Kent Baker, H., & Puttonen, V. (2017). Investment Traps Exposed: Navigating Investor Mistakes and Behavioral Biases. Bingley, UK: Emerald Publishing.
Kozyrkov, C. (2020). The problem with analyzing policy decisions in hindsight. https://medium.com/swlh/the-problem-with-analyzing-policy-decisions-in-hindsight-5f5632c6bc0b. Zugegriffen am 13 October 2020.
Leitl, M. (2007). Social Loafing? Harvard Business Manager. https://www.harvardbusinessmanager.de/heft/artikel/a-622728.html. Zugegriffen am 20 November 2018.
Lermer, E., Streicher, B., & Sachs, R. (2014). Psychologische Einflüsse II: Risikoeinschätzung in Gruppen. https://www.munichre.com/site/corpo-rate/get/documents_E399088179/mr/assetpool.shared/Documents/0_Corporate_Webs-ite/1_The_Group/Focus/Emerging-Risks/2013-09-emerging-risk-discussion-paper-de.pdf. Zugegriffen am 20 November 2018.
Manktelow, J. (2005). Mind Tools. Essential skills for an excellent career (4th Ed.). Swindon, UK: Mind Tools Ltd.
McCann, D. (2014). 10 cognitive biases that can trip up finance. CFO.com. https://ww2.cfo.com/forecasting/2014/05/10-cognitive-biases-can-trip-finance. Zugegriffen am 20 November 2018.
Memon, A. A., Vrij, A., & Bull, R. (2003). Psychology and Law: Truthfulness, Accuracy and Credibility (2nd Ed.). Chichester: Wiley.
Milgram, S. (1965). Some Conditions of Obedience and Disobedience to Authority. Human Relations, 18 (1), 57–76.
Montibeller, G., & von Winterfeldt, D. (2015). Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis. Risk Analysis, 35 (7), 1230–1251.
Moscovici, S., & Zavalloni, M. (1969). The group as a polarizer of attitudes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 12 (2), 125–135.
Moskaliuk, J. (2013). Warum Gruppen falsch entscheiden. https://www.wissensdialoge.de/hidden_profile. Zugegriffen am 20 November 2018.
Murata, A. (2017). Cultural Difference and Cognitive Biases as a Trigger of Critical Crashes or Disasters – Evidence from Case Studies of Human Factors Analysis. Journal of Behavioral and Brain Science, 7, 399–415. https://doi.org/10.4236/jbbs.2017.79029.
Murata, A., Yoshimura, H. (2015). Statistics of a variety of cognitive biases in decision making in crucial accident analyses. Procedia Manufacturing 3, 3898–3905.
Redman, T. C. (2017). Root Out Bias from Your Decision-Making Process. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2017/03/root-out-bias-from-your-decision-making-process. Zugegriffen am 11 December 2018.
Rees, M. (2015). Business Risk and Simulation Modelling in Practice: Using Excel, VBA and @RISK. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Scherrer, M. (2018). Menschlicher Faktor im Risikomanagement. Bachelor Thesis, Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts.
Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21 (23), R941–R945.
Shefrin, H. (2016). Behavioral Risk Management. Managing the Psychology That Drives Decisions and Influences Operational Risk. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Singh, R., Ryvola R. (2018). Cognitive Biases in Climate Risk Management. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/RCRCCC%2Bcognitive%2Bbiases_5%2Bshortcuts.ppd. Zugegriffen am 18 January 2019.
Slovic, P. (1987). Perception of risk. Science, 236, 280–285.
Smith, E. D., & Bahill, A. T. (2009). Attribute Substitution in Systems Engineering. Systems Engineering (January 2009), 1–19.
Stangor, C. (2014). Principles of Social Psychology – 1st International Edition. https://opentextbc.ca/socialpsychology/. Zugegriffen am 29 January 2019.
Stasser, G., & Titus, W. (1985). Pooling of unshared information in group decision making: Biased information sampling during discussion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 48 (6), 1467–1478.
Sun, Y., & Wang, H. (2010). Gambler’s fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns. Judgment and Decision Making, 5 (2), 124–132.
Tentori, K., Crupi, V., & Russo, S. (2013). On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: probability versus inductive confirmation. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 142 (1), 235–255.
Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. (2015). Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Crown Publishers.
The Decision Lab (n. d.). Affect Heuristic. https://thedecisionlab.com/bias/affect-heuristic/. Zugegriffen am 11 December 2018.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5 (2), 207–232.
Wolf, R. F. (2012). How to Minimize Your Biases When Making Decisions. https://hbr.org/2012/09/how-to-minimize-your-biases-when. Zugegriffen am 21 November 2018.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2022 Der/die Autor(en), exklusiv lizenziert an Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, ein Teil von Springer Nature
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Hunziker, S. (2022). Bekämpfung von Verzerrungen in der Risikoanalyse. In: Risikomanagement im Unternehmen. Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38847-8_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-38847-8_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer Gabler, Wiesbaden
Print ISBN: 978-3-658-38846-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-658-38847-8
eBook Packages: Business and Economics (German Language)