Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue

Abstract

Threat scenarios as used in security research depict very specific threat situations without much focus on societal or other contexts. In particular, future social and political developments resulting from the actions of science, politics, end-users and society usually are not elements of these scenarios. In contrast to this, the scenario process “Security 2025” of the Research Forum on Public Safety and Security was aimed to relate broader visions of future security situations with selected research questions on, for example, unintended consequences, multi-systemic risks, the influence of social resilience etc. Within the project, four narrative scenarios were developed; two of them are displayed in abbreviated form in this paper.

In 2012, these four scenarios were presented to an expert audience at the conference “Civil security. Security in an open society”. They were evaluated, contextualized and critically reflected upon by experts from politics and science and by security practitioners. The paper analyzes the rich discussions inspired by the scenarios, focusing on risk perception, risk communication, politicians as stakeholders, and a new security culture that embraces uncertainty. As a result, security dialogues, fueled by scenarios, have to be seen as an indispensable task of security research.

This text is partly based on: Steinmüller, K., Gerhold, L., & Beck, M.-L. (Eds.) (2012). Sicherheit 2025. Forschungsforum Öffentliche Sicherheit. Schriftenreihe Sicherheit Nr. 10. Berlin.