Advertisement

Why Do People Believe in Socialism? Testing Propositions for West and East Germany with the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS)

  • Karl-Dieter Opp
Chapter
Part of the Blickpunkt Gesellschaft book series (BLICKG)

Abstract

This paper proposes and tests for the first time a causal model explaining why people believe in socialism. The propositions are tested for East and West Germany with five repeated cross-sectional surveys of the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) between 1991 and 2010. We found that perceived institutional failure and Christian (vs. socialist) socialization diminish the belief in socialism, whereas status deprivation and socialization under communism lead to a strong belief in socialism. We further found a cohort effect: younger cohorts have only weak beliefs in socialism. There was a very weak period effect: belief in socialism decreased, but only very slightly, after unification of East and West Germany over time.

Keywords

Socialism Germany Political Sociology Age-Period-Cohort Effects Communism 

Literature

  1. Alesina, A., und N. Fuchs-Schündeln. 2007. Good-Bye Lenin (or Not?): The Effect of Communism on People’s Preferences. American Economic Review 97: 1507−1528.Google Scholar
  2. Almond, Gabriel A., und S. Verba. 1963. The Civic Culture. Political Attitudes and Democracy in five Nations. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  3. Alwin, Duane F. 2002. Age-Period-Cohort Model. Encylopedia of Aging. http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3402200024.html. Zugegriffen am: 1.1.2018.
  4. Alwin, Duane F., R. L. Cohen und T. M. Newcomb. 1991. Political Attitudes over the Life Span. The Bennington Women after Fifty Years. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar
  5. Alwin, D. F. und R. J. McCammon. 2004. Generations, Cohorts, and Social Change. In Handbook of the Life Course, Hrsg. J.T. Mortimer und M.S. Shanahan, 23-5. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
  6. Alwin, D. F., und J. Scott. 1996. Attitude Change: Its Measurement and Interpretation Using Longitudinal Surveys.In Understanding Changes in Social Attitudes, Hrsg. B. Taylor und K. Thomson, 75–106. Brookfield, VT: Dartmouth Publishing.Google Scholar
  7. Arzheimer, Kai. 2005. “Freiheit oder Sozialismus?” Gesellschaftliche Wertorientierungen, Staatszielvorstellungen und Ideologien im Ost-West-Vergleich. In Wächst zusammen, was zusammen gehört? Stabilität und Wandel politischer Einstellungen im wiedervereinigten Deutschland, Hrsg. O. W. Gabriel, J. Falter, und H. Rattinger, 285–313. Baden Baden: Nomos.Google Scholar
  8. Arzheimer, K. und M. Klein. 1997. Die friedliche und die stille Revolution. Die Entwicklung gesellschaftlicher Wertorientierungen in Deutschland seit dem Beitritt der fünf neuen Länder. In Politische Orientierungen und Verhaltensweisen im vereinigten Deutschland, Hrsg. O. W. Gabriel, 37–59. Opladen: Leske + Budrich.Google Scholar
  9. Arzheimer, K. und M. Klein. 2000. Gesellschaftspolitische Wertorientierungen und Staatszielvorstellungen im Ost-West-Vergleich. In Wirklich ein Volk? Die politischen Orientierungen von Ost- und Westdeutschen im Vergleich, Hrsg. J. Falter, O. W. Gabriel und H. Rattinger, 363–402. Opladen: Leske & Budrich.Google Scholar
  10. Best, H. und C. Wolf. 2012. Modellvergleich und Ergebnisinterpretation in Logit- und Probit-Regressionen. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 64: 377–395.Google Scholar
  11. Blum, U. 2013. Eastern Germany’s Economic Development Revisited: Path Dependence and Economic Stagnation before and after Reunification. Post-Communist Economies 25: 37–58.Google Scholar
  12. Bolzendahl, C. und D. J. Myers. 2004. Feminist Attitudes and Support for Gender Equality: Opinion Change in Women and Men, 1974–1998. Social Forces 83: 759–789.Google Scholar
  13. Boudon, Raymond. 2001. The Origin of Values. Sociology and Philosophy of Beliefs. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
  14. Brooks, C. und C. Bolzendahl. 2004. The Transformation of US Gender Role Attitudes: Cohort Replacement, Social-Structural Change, and Ideological Learning. Social Science Research 33: 106–133.Google Scholar
  15. Conradt, David P. 2003. Political Culture and Identity: The Post-Unification Search for Inner Unity. In Developments in German Politics 3, Hrsg. S. Padgett, W. E. Paterson und G. Smith, 269–297. Durham: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
  16. Dalton, R. J. 1994. Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies. British Journal of Political Science 24: 469–493.Google Scholar
  17. Danigelis, N. L., M. Hardy und S. J. Cutler. 2007. Population Aging, Intracohort Aging, and Sociopolitical Attitudes. American Sociological Review 72: 812–830.Google Scholar
  18. Fillieule, Oliver. 2013. Political Socialization and Social Movements. In The Wiley-Blackwell Encyclopedia of Social and Political Movements, Volume 3, Hrsg. D. A. Snow, D. della Porta, B. Klandermans und D. McAdam, 968–974. London: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.Google Scholar
  19. Finkel, S. E., S. Humphries und K.-D. Opp. 2001. Socialist Values and the Development of Democratic Support in the Former East Germany. International Political Science Review 22: 339–361.Google Scholar
  20. Firebaugh, G. 1989. Methods for Estimating Cohort Replacement Effects. Sociological Methodology 19: 243–262.Google Scholar
  21. Firebaugh, Glenn. 1997. Analyzing Repeated Surveys. Thousand Oaks: Sage.Google Scholar
  22. Firebaugh, G. und K. E. Davis. 1988. Trends in Antiblack Prejudice, 1972–1984: Region and Cohort Effects. American Journal of Sociology 94: 251–272.Google Scholar
  23. Fishbein, Martin und I. Ajzen. 2010. Predicting and Changing Behavior. The Reasoned Action Approach. New York and Hove: Psychology Press.Google Scholar
  24. Fuchs, D., und E. Roller. 2013. Einstellungen zu Demokratie und Sozialstaat. In Datenreport 2013. Ein Sozialbericht für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Hrsg. Statistisches Bundesamt, 370–376. Bonn: Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung.Google Scholar
  25. GESIS—Leibniz-Institut für Sozialwissenschaften. 2012. Allgemeine Bevölkerungsumfrage der Sozialwissenschaften. ALLBUS-Kumulation 1980–2010. GESIS Datenarchiv, Köln. ZA4574 Datenfile Version 1.0.1Google Scholar
  26. Gabriel, Oscar W. 2000. Demokratische einstellungen in einem Land ohne demokratische Traditionen? Die Unterstützung der Demokratie in den neuen Bundesländern. In Wirklich ein Volk? die politischen Orientierungen von Ost- und Westdeutschen im Vergleich, J. Falter, O.W. Gabriel und H. Rattinger, 41–77. Opladen: Leske & Budrich.Google Scholar
  27. Glenn, Norval D. 1977. Cohort Analysis. Beverly Hills & London: Sage.Google Scholar
  28. Glenn, Norval D. 2004. Distinguishing Age, Period, and Cohort Effects. In Handbook of the Life Course, Hrsg. J. T. Mortimer und M. J. Shanahan, 465–476. New York: Springer.Google Scholar
  29. Glenn, Norval D. 2005. Cohort Analysis. Thousand Oaks: Sage.Google Scholar
  30. Goeckel, Robert F. 1990. The Lutheran Church and the East German State: Political Conflict and Change Under Ulbricht and Honecker. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
  31. Grieder, Peter. 2012. The German Democratic Republic. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
  32. Lee, K. S., D. F. Alwin und P. A. Tufis. 2007. Beliefs about Women’s Labour in the Reunified Germany, 1991–2004 European Sociological Review 23: 487-503.Google Scholar
  33. Kim, B.-Y., S. Lee, S. Choi, K. Choi, and J. Lee. 2013. Do Institutions Affect Social Preferences? Evidence from Divided Korea. Discussion Paper No. 7567, IZA (Institnute for the Study of Labor -- IZA). http://ftp.iza.org/dp7567.pdf.
  34. Klüsener, S., und J. Goldstein. 2016. A Long-Standing Demographic East–West Divide in Germany. Population, Space and Place 22: 5–22.Google Scholar
  35. Lemke, Christiane. 1991. Die Ursachen des Umbruchs 1989. Politische Sozialisation in der ehemaligen DDR. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.Google Scholar
  36. Long, J. Scott. 2017. Regression Models for Nominal and Ordinal Outcomes. In The Sage Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference, Hrsg. H. Best und C. Wolf, 173–203. London: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
  37. Long, J. Scott, und J. Freese. 2014. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Google Scholar
  38. Mishler, W., und R. Rose. 2002. Learning and Re-Learning Regime Support: The Dynamics of Post-Communist Regimes. European Journal of Political Research 41: 5–36.Google Scholar
  39. Mood, C. 2010. Logistic Regression: Why We Cannot Do What We Think We Can Do, and What We Can Do About It. European Sociological Review 26: 67–82.Google Scholar
  40. Neller, Katja. 2006. DDR-Nostalgie. Dimensionen der Orientierungen der Ostdeutschen gegenüber der ehemaligen DDR, ihre Ursachen und politischen Konnotationen. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.Google Scholar
  41. Norris, Pippa. 1999. Institutional Explanations for Political Support. In Critical Citizens. Global Support for Democratic Governance, Hrsg. Pippa Norris, 217–235. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  42. Nozick, Robert. 1998. Why Do Intellectuals Oppose Capitalism?. http://www.libertarianism.org/publications/essays/why-do-intellectuals-oppose-capitalism, Zugegriffen am: 16.01.18.
  43. Pollack, Detlef. 2004. Zwischen Kulturalismus und Konstruktivismus: Die Transformation Ostdeutschlands als Prüfstein der Politische-Kultur-Forschung. In Was sind Kulturwissenschaften? 13 Antworten, Hrsg. H.-D. Kittsteiner, 213–238. München: Fink.Google Scholar
  44. Rohrschneider, R. 1996. Cultural Transmission Versus Perceptions of the Economy. The Sources of Political Elites’ Economic Values in Germany. Comparative Political Studies 29: 78-104.Google Scholar
  45. Rohrschneider, Robert. 1999. Learning Democracy. Democratic and Economic Values in Unified Germany. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  46. Rohrschneider, R., und R. Schmitt-Beck. 2002. Trust in Democratic Institutions in Germany: Theory and Evidence Ten Years After Unification. German Politics 11: 35–58.Google Scholar
  47. Roller, Edeltraut. 2010. Einstellungen zur Demokratie im vereinigten Deutschland. Gibt es Anzeichen für eine abnehmende Differenz? In Leben in Ost- und Westdeutschland: Eine sozialwissenschaftliche Bilanz der deutschen Einheit 1990-2010, Hrsg. P. Krause und I. Ostner, 597–614. Frankfurt und New York: Campus.Google Scholar
  48. Rose, Richard, W. Mishler, und C. Haerpfer. 1998. Democracy and Its Alternatives: Understanding Post-Communist Societies. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
  49. Ryder, N. B. 1965. The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change. American Sociological Review 30: 843–861.Google Scholar
  50. Smith, Patricia J. 1999. After the Wall. Eastern Germany Since 1989. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
  51. Svallfors, S. 2010. Policy Feedback, Generational Replacement, and Atitudes to State Intervention: Eastern and Western Germany, 1990–2006. European Political Science Review 2: 119–135.Google Scholar
  52. Visser, P. S., und J. A. Krosnick. 1998. Development of Attitude Strength Over the Life Cycle: Surge and Decline. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 75: 1389–1410.Google Scholar
  53. Weil, F. D. 1987. Cohorts, Regimes, and the Legitimation of Democracy: West Germany Since 1945. American Sociological Review 52: 308–324.Google Scholar
  54. Weil, F. D. 1993a. The Development of Democratic Attitudes in Eastern and Western Germany in a Comparative Perspective. Research on Democracy and Society 1: 195–225.Google Scholar
  55. Weil, Frederick D. 1993b. Cohorts and the Transitions to Democracy in Germany After 1945 and 1989. In Solidarity and Generations. Demographic, Economic and Social Change, and Its Consequences, Hrsg. H. A. Becker und P. L. Hermkens, 385-424. Amsterdam: Thesis Publishers.Google Scholar
  56. Westle, Bettina. 2004. Kollektive Identifikation und Orientierungen gegenüber Demokratie und Sozialismus. In Sozialer und politischer Wandel in Deutschland: Analysen mit ALLBUS-Daten aus zwei Jahrzehnten, Hrsg. R. Schmitt-Beck, M. Wasmer, und A. Koch, 261–301. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.Google Scholar
  57. Yang, Y., und K. C. Land. 2008. Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys. Fixed or Random Effects? Sociological Methods & Research 36: 297–326.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, ein Teil von Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Karl-Dieter Opp
    • 1
  1. 1.HamburgGermany

Personalised recommendations