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Evidenzorientierte Kriminalprävention in Deutschland pp 269–286Cite as

Probleme der Replikation von Ergebnissen in der Kriminalprävention und die Notwendigkeit der Differenzierung

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Zusammenfassung

Jüngste Publikationen in renommierten Fachzeitschriften wie Nature und Science haben gezeigt, dass es Probleme bei der Replikation von Forschungsergebnissen gibt. Dieser Beitrag informiert über einige Befunde zum Replikationsproblem und befasst sich in diesem Kontext mit der Reproduzierbarkeit von Ergebnissen in der Kriminologie und exemplarisch mit der entwicklungsbezogenen Kriminalprävention. Es zeigt sich, dass zwar im Durchschnitt positive Evaluationsergebnisse vorliegen, aber auch erhebliche Unterschiede in den Effektstärken, die keineswegs nur auf die verschiedenen Inhalte von Programmen zurückzuführen sind. Dies erlaubt keine einfachen Empfehlungen über die Wirksamkeit. Darüber hinaus umfassen die meisten Evaluationen nur kurzfristig Follow-up-Zeiträume. Auch sehr gute Studien liefern nur teilweise konsistente Ergebnisse. Programmentwicklung und -implementierung sind oftmals nicht unabhängig. Die genannten und andere Probleme betreffen nicht nur die entwicklungsorientierte Kriminalprävention, sondern sind allgemeiner. Trotz deutlicher Fortschritte in der einschlägigen Evaluationsforschung zeigt der Beitrag, dass differenziertere Ansätze notwendig sind. Zahlreiche Merkmale der Programme, Kontexte, Zielgruppen und Forschungsmethodik spielen für die Programmwirkungen eine Rolle. Wesentliche Schritte auf dem Weg zu einer differenzierten und replizierten Evidenzbasis werden dargestellt.

Der Text basiert auf der Joan McCord Award Lecture 2015 der Academy of Experimental Criminology, Washington, DC, USA (Lösel, 2017a).

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  1. Erlangen, Deutschland

    Friedrich Lösel & Doris Bender

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  1. Friedrich Lösel
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  1. Nationales Zentrum für Kriminalprävention (NZK), Bonn, Germany

    Maria Walsh

  2. Nationales Zentrum für Kriminalprävention (NZK), Bonn, Germany

    Benjamin Pniewski

  3. Nationales Zentrum für Kriminalprävention (NZK), Bonn, Germany

    Marcus Kober

  4. Nationales Zentrum für Kriminalprävention (NZK), Bonn, Germany

    Andreas Armborst

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Lösel, F., Bender, D. (2018). Probleme der Replikation von Ergebnissen in der Kriminalprävention und die Notwendigkeit der Differenzierung. In: Walsh, M., Pniewski, B., Kober, M., Armborst, A. (eds) Evidenzorientierte Kriminalprävention in Deutschland . Springer VS, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-20506-5_15

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