Advertisement

Europawahlen 2014

Die Wahl euroskeptischer Parteien im Schatten der Wirtschaftskrise
  • Daniela BraunEmail author
  • Markus Tausendpfund
Chapter
Part of the Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft book series (VGPO)

Zusammenfassung

Euroskeptische Parteien sind ein wesentlicher Faktor für die Politisierung der Europäischen Union. Diese haben das Thema Europäische Integration aufgegriffen, um ihre Wahlchancen zu erhöhen. Gleichzeitig gelang es ihnen, die neu entstandene politische Konfliktlinie für sich zu mobilisieren. Nicht zuletzt aus diesen Gründen erhalten euroskeptische Parteien bei nationalen, aber insbesondere auch bei Europawahlen immer höhere Stimmenanteile. Den bisherigen Höhepunkt stellt die Wahl 2014 dar: Nie zuvor in der Geschichte der Europawahlen haben sich so viele Menschen entschieden, einer euroskeptischen Partei ihre Stimme zu geben. Neben der Tatsache, dass das Interesse der Bürger an diesen Parteien generell im Laufe der Europäischen Integration gestiegen ist, kann auch die Finanz- bzw. Eurokrise als eine Erklärung für diesen Anstieg herangezogen werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund beschäftigen wir uns in dem vorliegenden Beitrag mit der Entscheidung der Wähler für euroskeptische Parteien im Schatten der Wirtschaftskrise. Wir verwenden Daten der Europawahlstudie 2014 und untersuchen die verschiedenen Mechanismen der Krise und deren Auswirkungen auf die Wahlentscheidung der Bürger für euroskeptische Parteien. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass auch die Wirtschaftskrise dazu beitrug, dass sich die Bürger bei der Europawahl 2014 für euroskeptische Parteien entschieden.

Schlagworte

Euroskeptizismus Politisierung Europawahlen Finanzkrise Wirtschaftskrise Parteien Europawahlstudie Mehrebenenanalyse 

Abstract

Eurosceptic parties are often described as a trigger for the politicization of the European Union. Most representatives of this party family used the European Integration issue in order to increase their vote share in elections. They thus seized the opportunity to mobilize the new conflict over Europe. This is certainly one reason why Eurosceptic parties gain more and more votes not only in national elections, but in particular in political contests at the European level of governance. More voters than ever before in the history of elections to the European Parliament casted their ballot for a Eurosceptic party in 2014. Beside the fact that public interest for these parties increased continuously in the course of European Integration, the financial or euro crisis are assumed to be responsible for this strong Eurosceptic vote. Against this background, the present contribution studies voters’ decisions to cast their ballot for Eurosceptic parties in the shadow of the economic crisis. Findings to the question whether the economic crisis has an impact on voting decisions stem mainly from case studies. In contrast, this study offers a cross-national set-up together with a broad understanding of the crisis phenomenon. Using data from the European Election Study 2014, our findings show that the crisis indeed determines to some degree the voting decision for a Eurosceptic party.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Literatur

  1. Anderson, C. J. 1995. Blaming the Government. Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies. New York: Sharpe.Google Scholar
  2. Anderson, C. J. 2000. Economic voting and political context: a comparative perspective. Electoral Studies 19 (2-3): 151-170.Google Scholar
  3. Armingeon, K., und B. Ceka. 2014. The loss of trust in the European Union during the great recession since 2007: The role of heuristics from the national political system. European Union Politics 15 (1): 82-107.Google Scholar
  4. Armingeon, K., und K. Guthmann. 2014. Democracy in crisis? The declining support for national democracy in European countries, 2007–2011. European Journal of Political Research 53 (3): 423-442.Google Scholar
  5. Bauer, G. 2015. Graphical display of regression results. In The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference, Hrsg. H. Best und C. Wolf, 205-224. Los Angeles: SAGE.Google Scholar
  6. Bellucci, P. 2014. The Political Consequences of Blame Attribution for the Economic Crisis in the 2013 Italian National Election. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 243-263.Google Scholar
  7. Bengtsson, Å. 2004. Economic voting: The effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters’ assignment of responsibility. European Journal of Political Research 43 (5): 749-767.Google Scholar
  8. Bernstein, R., A. Chadha, und R. Montjoy. 2001. Overreporting Voting. Why It Happens And Why It Matters. Public Opinion Quaterly 65 (1): 22-44.Google Scholar
  9. Brambor, T., W. R. Clark, und M. Golder. 2006. Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1): 63-82.Google Scholar
  10. Braun, D., S. Hutter, und A. Kerscher. 2016. What type of Europe? The salience of polity and policy issues in EP elections. European Union Politics:  https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116516660387.
  11. Braun, D., und M. Tausendpfund. 2014. The Impact of the Euro Crisis on Citizens’s Support for the European Union. Journal of European Integration 36 (3): 231-245.Google Scholar
  12. Braun, D., und M. Tausendpfund. 2015. Wirtschaftskrise und politische Unterstützung im europäischen Vergleich. In Wirtschaft, Krise und Wahlverhalten, Hrsg. H. Giebler, und A. Wagner, 333-360. Baden-Baden: Nomos.Google Scholar
  13. Brettschneider, F., J. W. van Deth, und E. Roller. 2003. Europäische Integration in der öffentlichen Meinung: Forschungsstand und Forschungsperspektiven. In Europäische Integration in der öffentlichen Meinung, Hrsg. F. Brettschneider, J. W. van Deth, und E. Roller, 9-26. Opladen: Leske+Budrich.Google Scholar
  14. Caballero, C. 2014. Nichtwahl. In Handbuch Wahlforschung, Hrsg. J. W. Falter, und H. Schoen, 437-488. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.Google Scholar
  15. Corbett, R. 2014. ‘European Elections are Second-Order Elections’: Is Received Wisdom Changing? Journal of Common Market Studies 52 (6): 1194-1198.Google Scholar
  16. Daniele, G., und B. Geys. 2015. Public support for European fiscal integration in times of crisis. Journal of European Public Policy 22 (5): 650-670.Google Scholar
  17. de Vries, C. E., und M. van de Wardt. 2011. EU issue salience and domestic party competition. In Issue Salience in International Politics, Hrsg. K. Oppermann und H. Viehrig, 173-187. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
  18. de Vries, C. E., W. van der Brug, M. H. van Egmond, und C. van der Eijk. 2011. Individual and contextual variation in EU issue voting: The role of political information. Electoral Studies 30 (1): 16-28.Google Scholar
  19. Dotti Sani, G. M., und B. Magistro. 2016. Increasingly unequal? The economic crisis, social inequalities and trust in the European Parliament in 20 European countries. European Journal of Political Research 55 (2): 246-264.Google Scholar
  20. Duch, R., und R. Stevenson. 2008. The Economic Vote. How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  21. Eichenberg, R. C., und R. J. Dalton. 2007. Post-Maastricht Blues: The Transformation of Citizen Support for European Integration, 1973-2004. Acta Politica 42 (2-3): 128-152.Google Scholar
  22. Fiorina, M. P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
  23. Gelman, A., und J. Hill. 2007. Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  24. Giebler, H., und A. Wagner, Hrsg. 2015. Wirtschaft, Krise und Wahlverhalten. Baden-Baden: Nomos.Google Scholar
  25. Grande, E., und H. Kriesi. 2015. Die Eurokrise: Ein Quantensprung in der Politisierung des europäischen Integrationsprozesses? Politische Vierteljahresschrift 56 (3): 479-505.Google Scholar
  26. Green-Pederson, C. 2012. A Giant Fast Asleep? Party Incentives and the Politicisation of European Integration. Political Studies 60 (1): 115-130.Google Scholar
  27. Guo, G., und H. Zhao. 2000. Multilevel Modeling for Binary Data. Annual Review of Sociology 26: 441-462.Google Scholar
  28. Haller, M. 2009. Die Europäische Integration als Elitenprozess. Das Ende eines Traums? Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.Google Scholar
  29. Hernández, E., und H. Kriesi. 2016. The electoral consequences of the financial and economic crisis in Europe. European Journal of Political Research 55 (2): 203-224.Google Scholar
  30. Hix, S., und M. Marsh. 2011. Second-order effects plus pan-European political swings: An analysis of European Parliament elections across time. Electoral Studies 30 (1): 4-15.Google Scholar
  31. Hobolt, S. B. 2015. The 2014 European Parliament Elections: Divided in Unity? Journal of Common Market Studies 53 (S1): 6-21.Google Scholar
  32. Hobolt, S. B., und C. de Vries. 2016. Turning against the Union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies:  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.05.006.
  33. Hobolt, S. B., und J. Tilley. 2014a. Blaming Europe? Responsibility Without Accountability in the European Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  34. Hobolt, S. B., und J. Tilley. 2014b. Who’s in Charge? How Voters Attribute Responsibility in the European Union. Comparative Political Studies 47 (6): 795-819.Google Scholar
  35. Hobolt, S. B., und C. Wratil. 2015. Public opinion and the crisis: the dynamics of support for the euro. Journal of European Public Policy 22 (2): 238-256.Google Scholar
  36. Hooghe, L., und G. Marks. 2008. European Union? West European Politics 31 (1-2): 108-129.Google Scholar
  37. Hooghe, L., und G. Marks. 2009. A Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to Constraining Dissensus. British Journal of Political Science 39 (1): 1-23.Google Scholar
  38. Hooghe, L., G. Marks, und C. J. Wilson. 2002. Does Left/Right Structure Party Positions on European Integration? Comparative Political Studies 35 (8): 965-989.Google Scholar
  39. Hox, J. J. 2002. Multilevel Analysis. Techniques and Applications. New York: Psychology Press.Google Scholar
  40. Hrbek, R. 2014. Europawahl 2014: Kontinuität und neue Facetten. Integration (3): 205-227.Google Scholar
  41. Indridason, I. H. 2014. The Collapse: Economic Considerations in Vote Choice in Iceland. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 134-159.Google Scholar
  42. Kelbel, C., V. Van Ingelgom, und S. Verhaegen. 2016. Looking for the European Voter: Split-Ticket Voting in the Belgian Regional and European Elections of 2009 and 2014. Politics and Governance 4 (1): 116-129.Google Scholar
  43. Kriesi, H. 2007. The Role of European Integration in National Election Campaigns. European Union Politics 8 (1): 83-108.Google Scholar
  44. Kriesi, H. 2014. The Political Consequences of the Economic Crisis in Europe: Electoral Punishment and Popular Protest. In Mass Politics in Tough Times. Opinions, Votes, and Protest in the Great Recession, Hrsg. N. Bermeo, und L. M. Bartels, 297-333. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  45. Kriesi, H., und T. S. Pappas, Hrsg. 2015a. European Populism in the Shadow of the Great Recession. Colchester: ECPR Press.Google Scholar
  46. Kriesi, H., und T. S. Pappas. 2015b. Populism in Europe During Crisis: An Introduction. In European Populism in the Shadow of the Great Recession, Hrsg. H. Kriesi und T. S. Pappas, 1-19. Colchester: ECPR Press.Google Scholar
  47. Krosnick, J. A. 1999. Survey Research. Annual Review of Psychology 50: 537-567.Google Scholar
  48. Kuhn, T., und F. Stoeckel. 2014. When European integration becomes costly: the euro crisis and public support for European economic governance. Journal of European Public Policy 21 (4): 624-641.Google Scholar
  49. Lewis-Beck, M. S. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
  50. Lewis-Beck, M. S., und M. Paldam. 2000. Economic voting: an introduction. Electoral Studies 19 (2): 113-121.Google Scholar
  51. Lewis-Beck, M. S., und M. Stegmaier. 2000. Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 3 (1): 183-219.Google Scholar
  52. Lewis-Beck, M. S., und M. Stegmaier. 2007. Economics models of voting. In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Hrsg. R. J. Dalton und H. Klingemann, 518-537. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
  53. Lindberg, L. N., und S. A. Scheingold. 1970. Europe’s would-be polity. Patterns of change in the European Community. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
  54. Lobo, M. C., und M. S. Lewis-Beck. 2012. The integration hypothesis: How the European Union shapes economic voting. Electoral Studies 31 (3): 522-528.Google Scholar
  55. Maas, C. J. M. 2011. Multilevel Analysis. In International Encyclopedia of Political Science. Volume 5, Hrsg. B. Badie, D. Berg-Schlosser und L. Morlino, 1637-1641. Thousand Oaks: Sage.Google Scholar
  56. Magalhaes, P. C. 2014. The Elections of the Great Recession in Portugal: Performance Voting under a Blurred Responsibility for the Economy. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 180-202.Google Scholar
  57. Marsh, M. 1998. Testing the Second-Order Election Model after Four European Elections. British Journal of Political Science 28 (4): 591-607.Google Scholar
  58. Marsh, M., und S. Mikhaylov. 2014. A Conservative Revolution: The Electoral Response to Economic Crisis in Ireland. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 160-179.Google Scholar
  59. Meijers, M. J. 2015. Contagious Euroscepticism: The impact of Eurosceptic support on mainstream party positions on European integration. Party Politics:  https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068815601787.
  60. Nadeau, R., R. G. Niemi, und A. Yoshinaka. 2002. A cross-national analysis of economic voting: taking account of the political context across time and nations. Electoral Studies 21 (4): 540-542.Google Scholar
  61. Okolikj, M., und S. Quinlan. 2016. Context Matters: Economic Voting in the 2009 and 2014 European Parliament Elections. Politics and Governance 4 (1): 145-166.Google Scholar
  62. Powell, G. B. Jr., und G. D. Whitten. 1993. A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context. American Journal of Political Science 37 (2): 391-414.Google Scholar
  63. Rabe-Hesketh, S., und A. Skrondal. 2012. Multilevel and Longitudinal Modeling Using Stata. Volume II: Categorical Responses, Counts, and Survival. College Station: Stata Press.Google Scholar
  64. Reif, K. 1993. Ein Ende des Permissive Consensus? Zum Wandel europapolitischer Einstellungen in der öffentlichen Meinung der EG-Mitgliedsstaaten. In Der Vertrag von Maastricht in der wissenschaftlichen Kontroverse, Hrsg. R. Hrbek, 23-40. Baden-Baden: Nomos.Google Scholar
  65. Reif, K., und H. Schmitt. 1980. Nine Second-Order National Elections – A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results. European Journal of Political Research 8 (1): 3-44.Google Scholar
  66. Risse, T. 2015. European Public Spheres: Politics is Back. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  67. Roose, J. 2015. Politisiert die Krise? Veränderungen bei der Diskussion EU-politischer Fragen in der Bevölkerung. In Empirische Kultursoziologie. Festschrift für Jürgen Gerhards zum 60. Geburtstag, Hrsg. J. Rössel und J. Roose, 425-454. Wiesbaden: Springer VS.Google Scholar
  68. Roth, F., D. Gros, und F. Nowak-Lehmann D. 2014. Crisis and Citizens’ Trust in the European Central Bank – Panel Data Evidence for the Euro Area, 1999–2012. Journal of European Integration 36 (3): 247-265.Google Scholar
  69. Schmitt, H. 2005. The European Parliament Elections of June 2004: Still Second-Order? West European Politics 28 (3): 650-679.Google Scholar
  70. Schmitt, H., S. B. Hobolt, S. A. Popa, E. Teperoglou, und European Parliament. 2015a. European Parliament Election Study 2014, Voter Study, First Post-Election Survey (ZA5160, Data file Version 3.0.0). Köln: GESIS.Google Scholar
  71. Schmitt, H., S. Hobolt, und S. A. Popa. 2015b. Does personalization increase turnout? Spitzenkandidaten in the 2014 European Parliament elections. European Union Politics 16 (3): 347-368.Google Scholar
  72. Schmitt, H., und E. Teperoglou. 2015. The 2014 European Parliament Elections in Southern Europe: Second-Order or Critical Elections? South European Society and Politics 20 (3): 287-309.Google Scholar
  73. Schmitt, H., und İ. Toygür. 2016. European Parliament Elections of May 2014: Driven by National Politics or EU Policy Making? Politics and Governance 4 (1): 167-181.Google Scholar
  74. Seib, P., und S. Munzert. 2013. Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys. Electoral Studies 32 (1): 186-196.Google Scholar
  75. Serricchio, F., M. Tsakatika, und L. Quaglia. 2013. Euroscepticism and the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of Common Market Studies 51 (1): 51-64.Google Scholar
  76. Singer, M. 2011. When do voters actually think “It’s the Economy”? Evidence from the 2008 presidential campaign. Electoral Studies 30 (4): 621-632.Google Scholar
  77. Snijders, T. A., und R. J. Bosker. 1999. Multilevel Analysis. An Introduction to Basic and Advanced Multilevel Modeling. London: Sage.Google Scholar
  78. Spoon, J.-J.. 2012. How salient is Europe? An analysis of European election manifestos, 1979-2004. European Union Politics 13 (4): 588-579.Google Scholar
  79. Steenbergen, M. R., und D. J. Scott. 2004. Contesting Europe? The salience of European integration as a party issue. In European Integration and Political Conflict, Hrsg. G. Marks, und M. R. Steenbergen, 165-192. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  80. Taggart, P., und A. Szczerbiak. 2004. Contemporary Euroscepticism in the party systems of the European Union candidate states of Central and Eastern Europe. European Journal of Political Research 43 (1): 1-27.Google Scholar
  81. Torcal, M. 2014. The Incumbent Electoral Defeat in the 2011 Spanish National Elections: The Effect of the Economic Crisis in an Ideological Polarized Party System. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 24 (2): 203-221.Google Scholar
  82. Treib, O. 2014. The voter says no, but nobody listens: causes and consequences of the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European elections. Journal of European Public Policy 21 (10): 1541-1554.Google Scholar
  83. van der Eijk, C., und M. N. Franklin. 2004. Potential for contestation on European matters at national elections in Europe. In European integration and political conflict, Hrsg. G. Marks und M. R. Steenbergen, 32-50. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  84. van Erkel, P. F. A., und T. W. G. van der Meer. 2016. Macroeconomic performance, political trust and the Great Recession: A multilevel analysis of the effects of within-country fluctuations in macroeconomic performance on political trust in 15 EU countries, 1999-2011. European Journal of Political Research 55 (1): 177-197.Google Scholar
  85. Whitten, G. D., und H. D. Palmer. 1999. Cross-national analyses of economic voting. Electoral Studies 18 (1): 49-67.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Geschwister-Scholl-Institut für PolitikwissenschaftMünchenDeutschland
  2. 2.FernUniversität in Hagen, Fakultät KSWHagenDeutschland

Personalised recommendations