Abstract
The intent of both expert systems and decision analysis is to help decision makers make better informed decisions. The manners in which these tools provide this help are quite distinct from each other. Indeed, both decision analysis and expert systems have complementary strengths. Consequently, each has significant advantages that could be usefully adapted by the other. This article focuses on how decision analysis could appropriately be used to improve the potential usefulness of expert systems designed for decision support.
This work was supported in part by the Office of Naval Research under Contract N00014–84-K-0332 titled “Value-Focused Thinking and the Study of Values.” It is based on a paper originally presented at the International Conference on Multi-attribute Decision Making via O.R.-Based Expert Systems at the University of Passau, Germany, April 20–27, 1986.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bell, D.E. 1977. A Utility Function for Time Streams Having Interperiod Dependencies, Operations Research, 25, 448–458.
Debreu, G. 1960. Topological Methods in Cardinal Utility Theory, in MathematicalMethods in the Social Sciences, 1959, K.J. Arrow, S. Karlin and P. Suppes (eds.), Stanford University Press, Stanford, Calif.
Dyer, J.S., and R.K. Sarlin 1979. Measurable Multi-attribute Value Functions, Operations Research, 27, 810–822.
Farquhar, P.H. 1984. Utility Assessment Methods, Management Science, 300, 1283–1300.
Farquhar, P.H. 1986. Applications of Utility Theory in Artificial Intelligence Research, Technical Report 86–2, Decision Research Program, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Farquhar, P.H. and P.C. Fishburn 1981. Equivalence and Continuity in Multivalent Preference Structures, Operations Research, 29, 282–293.
Fishburn, P.C. 1964. Decision and Value Theory, Wiley, New York.
Fishburn, P.C. 1965. Independence in Utility Theory with Whole Product Sets, Operations Research, 13, 28–45.
Fishburn, P.C. 1967. Methods of Estimating Additive Utilities, Management Science, 13, 435–453.
Fishburn, P.C. 1970. Utility Theory for DecisionMaking, Wiley, New York.
Fishburn, P.C. 1973. The Theory of SocialChoice, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
Harsanyi, J.C. 1955. Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility, Journal of Political Economy, 63, 309–321.
Humphreys, P.C. and A. Wishuda 1980. Multi-attribute Utility Decomposition, Technical Report 72–2/2, Decision Analysis Unit, Brunei University, Uxbridge, Middlesex, England.
Keeney, R.L. 1980. Siting Energy Facilities, Academic Press, New York.
Keeney, R.L. 1981. Analysis of Preference Dependencies among Objectives, Operations Research, 29, 1105–1120.
Keeney, R.L. 1982. Decision Analysis: An Overview, Operations Research, 30, 803–838.
Keeney, R.L. 1985. Hierarchies of Objectives, Report 8515, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Passau, Germany.
Keeney, R.L., and H. Raiffa 1976. Decisions withMultiple(Objectives, Wiley, New York.
Koopmans, T.C. 1960. Stationary Ordinal Utility and Impatience, Econometrica, 28, 287–309.
Krantz, D.H., R.D. Luce, P. Suppes and A. Tversky 1971. Foundations of Measurement, 1, Academic Press, New York.
Krischer, J.P. 1976. Utility Structure of a Medical Decision-Making Problem, Operations Research, 24, 951–972.
Lehner, P.E., M.A. Probus, and M.L. Donnell 1985. Building Decision Aids: Exploiting the Synergy between Decision Analysis and Artificial Intelligence, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-15, 469–74.
Luce, R.D., and J.W. Tukey 1964. Simultaneous Conjoint Measurement: A New Type of Fundamental Measurement, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 1, 1–27.
Meyer, R.F. 1970. On the Relationship among the Utility of Assets, the Utility of Consumption, and Investment Strategy in an Uncertain, but Time Invariant World, in OR 69: Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on a Operational Research, J. Lawrence (ed.), Tavistock Publishing, London.
Pratt, J.W. 1964. Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large, Econometrica, 32, 353–375.
Pratt, J.W., H. Raiffa and R.O. Schlaifer 1964. The Foundations of Decision under Uncertainty: An Elementary Exposition, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 59, 353–375.
Savage, L.J. 1954. The Foundations of Statistics, Wiley, New York.
Sicherman, A. 1982. Decision Framework for Technology Choice, Volume 2: Decision Analysis User’s Manual, EPRI Report EA-2153, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, Calif.
von Neumann, J., and O. Morgenstern 1947. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, ED. 2., Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
von Winterfeldt, D., and W. Edwards 1986. Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, Cambridge University Press, New York, New York.
Waterman, D.A. 1986. A Guide to Expert Systems, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts.
Wellman, M.P. 1985. Reasoning about Preference Models, Technical Report 340, Laboratory for Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Wellman, M.P. 1986. Automated Multi-attribute Utility Decomposition: Examples, Preprint, Laboratory for Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
White, C.C. III, and E.A. Sykes 1986. A User Preference Guided Approach to Conflict Resolution in Rule-Based Expert Systems, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-16, 276–278.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1987 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Keeney, R.L. (1987). Value-Driven Expert Systems for Decision Support. In: Mumpower, J.L., Renn, O., Phillips, L.D., Uppuluri, V.R.R. (eds) Expert Judgment and Expert Systems. NATO ASI Series, vol 35. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-86679-1_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-86679-1_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-86681-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-642-86679-1
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive