Skip to main content

The Dynamics of Women’s Labor Force Participation and Fertility: A Simultaneous ARX-Model

  • Conference paper
Economic Consequences of Population Change in Industrialized Countries

Part of the book series: Studies in Contemporary Economics ((CONTEMPORARY,volume 8))

Abstract

As Westhoff (1983) has stated, “it seems ironic, if not perverse, that as problems of rapid population growth in the developing countries of the world have captured the concern of many governments and international agencies, a small but increasing number of voices are raising concern in some advanced countries about the opposite problem — the problem of low fertility and impending population decline.” It is a widely accepted hypothesis that the decline in fertility is somehow related to the increased labor force participation of married women in advanced countries.

The research reported here is part of the research program in Labor Studies of the Sonderforschungsbereich 5, University of Mannheim, supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. I wish to thank Heinz König for helpful comments on an earlier draft, but remaining errors are my own.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Akaike, H. (1969), Fitting Autoregressions for Prediction, in: Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 21, pp. 243–247.

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker, G.S. (1965), A Theory of the Allocation of Time, in: Economic Journal, 75, pp. 493–517.

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker G.S./Lewis, H.G. (1974), On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children,in: Schultz,T.W.(ed.),Economics of the Family, Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Porath, Y. (1982), Economics and the Family–Match or Mismatch? A Review of Becker’s A Treatise of the Family, in: Journal of Economic Literature, 20, pp. 52–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Biswas, B./Ram, R. (1982), Simultaneous Equations Analysis of Fertility in the U.S.: A Comment, in: Econometrica, 50, pp. 1585–1590.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blake, J. (1965), Demographic Science and the Redirection of Population Policy, in: Sheps, M.C./Ridley, J.C. (eds.), Public Health and Population Change, Pittsburgh.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cain, C.C./Dooley, M.D. (1976), Estimation of a Model of Labor Supply, Fertility, and Wages of Married Women, in: Journal of Political Economy, 84, pp. S179 - S199.

    Google Scholar 

  • Carliner, G./Robinson, C./Tomes, N. (1980), Female Labour Supply and Fertility in Canada, in: Canadian Journal of Economics, 13, pp. 46–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark, K.B./Summers, L.H. (1982), Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence, in: Review of Economic Studies, 49, pp. 825–844.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cramer, J.C. (1980), Fertility and Female Employment: Problems of Causal Direction, in: American Sociological Review, 45, pp. 167–190.

    Google Scholar 

  • Deaton, A./Muellbauer, J. (1980), Economics and Consumer Behavior, Cambridge et al.

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterlin, R.A. (1969), Toward a Socioeconomic Theory of Fertility, in: Behrman, S.J. et al. (eds.), Fertility and Family Planning: A World View, Ann Arbor.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ermisch, J.F. (1980), Time Costs, Aspirations and the Effect of Economic Growth on German Fertility, in: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 42, pp. 125–143.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feichtinger, G. (1977), Ursachen und Konsequenzen des Geburtenrückgangs in: Külp, B./Haas, H.D. (Hrsg.), Soziale Probleme der modernen Industriegesellschaft, Bd. 1, Berlin.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fleisher, B.M./Rhodes, G.F. (1979), Fertility, Women’s Wages Rates, and Labor Supply, in: American Economic Review, 69, pp. 14–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freedman, D.S./Thornton, A. (1982), Income and Fertility: The Elusive Relationship, in: Demography, 19, pp. 65–78.

    Google Scholar 

  • Granger, G.W.J. (1969), Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross Spectral Methods, in: Econometrica, 37, pp. 424–438.

    Google Scholar 

  • Granger, G.W.J./Newbold, P. (1977), Forecasting Economic Time Series, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gyârfâs, G. (1983), Ein familienökonomischer Ansatz zur Erklärung der Fertilitätsentwicklung. Eine Überprüfung seiner Erklärungskraft und Prognoseeignung für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Arbeitspapiere der Gesellschaft für Mathematik und Datenverarbeitung Nr. 7, Bonn.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hall, R.E. (1980), Labor Supply and Aggregate Fluctuations, in: Brunner, K./Meltzer, A.H. (eds.), On the State of Macroeconomics, Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hannan, M.T. (1982), Families, Markets, and Social Structures: An Essay on Becker’s A Treatise on the Family, in: Journal of Economic Literature, 20, pp. 65–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hannan, E.J./Dunsmuir, W.T.M./Deistler, M. (1980), Estimation of Vector Armax Models, in: Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 10, pp. 275–295.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, J.J./MaCurdy, T.E. (1980), A Life Cycle Model of Female Labour Supply, in: Review of Economic Studies, 47, pp. 47–74.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heckman, J.J. (1981), Statistical Models for Discrete Panel Data, in: Manski, C.F./McFadden, D.(eds.), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, Cambridge, MA, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Höhn, C. (1982), Erwerbstätigkeit and Rollenwandel der Frau, in: Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 8, pp. 297–317.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsiao, C. (1979), Autoregressive Modeling of Canadian Money and Income Data, in: Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, pp. 553–560.

    Google Scholar 

  • Leibenstein, H. (1975), The Economic Theory of Fertility Decline, in: Quarterly Journal of Economics, 89, pp. 1–31.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehrer, E./Nerlove, M. (1981), The Labor Supply and Fertility Behavior of Married Women: A Three-Period Model, in: Simon, J.L./Lindert, P.H. (eds.), Research in Population Economics, 3, pp. 123–145.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lucas, R./Rapping, L.A. (1969), Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation, in: Journal of Political Economy, 77, pp. 721–754.

    Google Scholar 

  • McDonald, J. (1981), Modeling Demographic Relationships: An Analysis of Forecast Functions for Australian Births, in: Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, pp. 782–792.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mincer, J. (1962), Labor Force Participation of Married Women: A Study of Labor Supply, in: National Bureau of Economic Research (ed.), Aspects of Labor Economics, Princeton.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mincer, J. (1963), Market Prices, Opportunity Costs, and Income Effects, in:Christ, C.F. et al. (eds.), Measurement in Economics: Studies in Mathematical Economics and Econometrics in Memory of Yehuda Grunfeld, Stanford.

    Google Scholar 

  • Proebsting, H. (1983), Kinderzahl ausgewählter Bevölkerungsgruppen. Ergebnis des Mikrozensus 1981, in: Wirtschaft and Statistik, pp. 858–368.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig, M.R./Wolpin, K.I. (1980), Life-Cycle Labor Supply from Household Models, in: Journal of Political Economy, 88, pp. 328–348.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rückert, G.-R. (1979), Geburtenrückgang und Erwerbstätigkeit der Frauen und Mütter in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich, Materialien zum Dritten Familienbericht der Bundesregierung, München.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schubnell, H. (1973), Der Geburtenrückgang in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Entwicklung, Ursachen und Auswirkungen. Die Entwicklung der Erwerbstätigkeit von Frauen und Müttern, Schriftenreihe des Bundesministeriums für Jugend, Familie und Gesundheit, Band 6, Stuttgart.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schultz,T.W. (1974), Economics of the Family, Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwarz, K. (1981), Erwerbstätigkeit der Frau und Kinderzahl, in: Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 7, pp. 59–86.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sims, C.A. (1980), Macroeconomics and Reality, in: Econometrica, 48, pp. 1–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Spinnewyn, F. (1981), Rational Habit Formation, in: European Economic Review, 15, pp. 91–109.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turchi, B.A. (1975), Microeconomic Theories of Fertility: A Critique, in: Social Forces, 54, pp. 107–125.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wander, H. (1980), Ursachen des Geburtenrückgangs in ökonomischer

    Google Scholar 

  • Sicht. Theoretische Ansätze und empirische Ergebnisse unter Berücksichtigung der Verhältnisse in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Discussion Papers 71, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Westoff, C. (1983), Fertility Decline in the West: Causes and Prospects, in: Population and Development Review, 9, pp. 99–104.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zimmermann, K.F. (1982), Humankapital, Kinderwunsch und Familiengröße, in: Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 8, pp. 547–558.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zimmermann, K.F. (1983), Human Capital, Labor Force Participation and Fertility of Married Women, mimeo. Mannheim.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zimmermann, K.F. (1984), Zur ökonomischen Theorie der Familie. Frauenerwerbstätigkeit und Geburtenentwicklung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland unter Berücksichtigung der Konsequenzen der Rationierung, der Gewohnheitsbildung und der Staatsaktivität, mimeo. Mannheim.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1984 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Zimmermann, K.F. (1984). The Dynamics of Women’s Labor Force Participation and Fertility: A Simultaneous ARX-Model. In: Steinmann, G. (eds) Economic Consequences of Population Change in Industrialized Countries. Studies in Contemporary Economics, vol 8. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-86478-0_22

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-86478-0_22

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-13513-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-86478-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics