The Demographic Transition Revised

Abstract

The theory of the demographic transition was long regarded as one of the most firmly-established of socio-economic theories. This theory was thought to explain how mortality and fertility were changed through the improvements in living standards and new labour conditions that followed the agricultural and industrial revolutions of the nineteenth century. The population changes were just as radical in their way as the economic changes, and “the vital revolution” was one of the terms suggested when the theory of demographic transition was being christened.¹ Gradually, however, the theory of the demographic revolution has come under severe criticism. But it still has a strong influence over our understanding both of how today’s industrial countries have developed and of developments in those countries which just now are in the midst of such a process. The reason why the theory still survives despite all criticism is that there is a great need for a general theory of population trends during the transition from an agrarian to an industrial society and that no sensible alternative to the demographic transition theory has been presented.