Transnational Regional Responses to Global Climate Change: Options — Obstacles — Opportunities

Abstract

The prospect of significant changes in the climate of the Earth raises questions regarding resulting changes in ecology, economics, populations, and politics. As best we can foresee, these changes are likely to be both global (e.g., sea level rise) and regional (e.g., change in rainfall, temperature, and extreme events). The social, political, and ideational characteristics of today’s world are poorly adapted to responding to major geobiospheric changes. Adaptive responses are unpredictable under present uncertainties. Yet, a range of possible responses may be conjectured on the basis of present estimates and past experiences with transnational regional responses to perceived common threats (e.g., UNEP’s Regional Seas Programme) We may identify options for new transboundary arrangements and the opportunities that alternative choices present. But a realistic approach to these conjectures requires the identification of the obstacles to regional and national cooperation and the devising of credible alternatives to institutional inadequacies.